2008 Outlook-Tampa Bay Rays

Today we look at the up and coming Tampa Bay Rays, a team with a lot of promise. The franchise has been a cellar dweller from their inception, finishing last every year except 2004. That was the same year they managed to crack the 70 win plateau, though it took a win on the last day of the season to accomplish that feat.

Key Acquisitions

-Troy Percival

-Matt Garza

-Jason Bartlett

-Cliff Floyd

-Willie Aybar

Key Departures

-Elijiah Dukes

-Delmon Young

-Brendan Harris

The acquisition of Percival is a big one for the Rays. Their pen had the highest ERA in the majors last year, at 6.16, which was almost 2 runs higher than the major league average. Percival should help settle that, by moving Al Reyes, last years closer, into a setup role. Still, it’s going to take more than just Percival to get the bullpen to respectability.

The big acquisition was Matt Garza, who along with Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan, acquired from the Twins for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. Garza adds to the impressive collection of young arms the Devil Rays have put together. Garza should slide into the #3 slot, behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields, pushing Andy Sonnanstine to the status of #4 starter, with Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell will be keeping the seat warm for David Price, Jeff Niemann, or Wade Davis, among others. It would be interesting to see if the Rays would consider using Niemann in the pen this year, in an attempt to get him acclimated to the bigs, and to improve their pen.

Despite the loss of Young, who played every game, and Dukes, the Devil Rays outfield situation is in good shape. B.J. Upton should be expected to be the every day center fielder, with Carl Crawford in left. The Rays have option in right, including Floyd, Johnny Gomes and possibly Rocco Baldelli, depending on how he is recovering.

Tampa Bay’s offense is in good shape, the finished 15^th in the majors in runs scored in 2007, and 12^th in OPS. Even taking into account some regression from Carlos Pena, the improved right field situation (where the Devil Rays were 28^th in OPS) should balance the scales. With Evan Longoria expected to play 3b, and Akinora Iwamura at 2b, the Rays have the potential to be above average offensively at 3 infield positions.

2008 Outlook

It comes down to pitching for the Devil Rays. The presence of Garza and Percival should improve the club. While I don’t believe they will be able to post their first winning season, they should be able to improve by 6-8 games, giving them their highest win total of all-time. They are a team to watch in 2009, and could play a spoiler role in the AL East if they can improve their record against the Red Sox, whom they went 5-13 against in ’07.

Coming Monday: The Toronto Blue Jays!

2008 Outlook-New York Yankees

Continuing our look at the American League East, we move on to the Yankees. Despite a slow start in 2007, the Yankees eventually righted the ship and earned the wild-card, and were bounced in 4 games by the Cleveland Indians.

Key Acquisitions

-Joe Girardi

-LaTroy Hawkins

-Morgan Ensberg

Key Departures

-Roger Clemens

-Joe Torre

-Luis Vizcaino

-Doug Mientkiewicz

The Yankees also resigned several prominent players, including Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite, and Alex Rodriguez. They also picked up right fielder Bobby Abreu’s option.

The key transactions were the departure of manager Joe Torre and the hiring of Joe Girardi. Torre leaves a Yankee legacy behind comparable to those of Joe McCarthy and Casey Stengel. However, he had drawn criticism for a number of things, including his handling of the bullpen in recent years, his laid back approach, and his leaving A-Rod out to dry in 2006. When you win 4 World Series titles in your first five seasons with a team, and fail to win one in the seven after that, people are going to talk.

There are a few similarities to Girardi and Torre. Both are ex-catcher, they both were ex-National League managers when they were hired, and both had ties to New York(Torre played for the Mets in the 70’s, and was actually a player-manager for a short time).

Girardi guided a young, inexperienced team to 78 wins in 2006, and won the NL Manager of the Year award (whether he really deserved it over Willie Randolph and his Mets running roughshod all over the NL is a different article). He was fired after one year, in part because of clashes with ownership, and in part because of his perceived handling of a young pitching staff.

One incident that sticks out is Josh Johnson coming back to pitch after a rain delay of almost an hour and a half. It was Johnson’s last game of the season, September 12^th. Girardi has taken a lot of heat for his handling of the pitching staff, as his detractors point to the fact that Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco were unable to pitch most of 2007. Those three combined for 28 starts over 100 pitches, out of their 63 combined starts.

A bit worrisome if you’re a Yankee fan looking forward to watching Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy for years to come. The Yankees and pitching coach Dave Eiland have made it clear that they’ll treat this players with kid gloves, but you have to wonder, if push comes to shove, will Girardi just strap ‘em to the deck and ride the wave in the crunch?

Swapping out Luis Vizcaino for Latroy Hawkins is, at best, a lateral move. Vizcaino pitched much better in the second half(1.28 WHIP and 3.34 ERA). Hawkins pitched well in Colorado, but it was the first time since 04 he had posted a WHIP below 1.30. The departure of Clemens was probably for the best, as he wouldn’t have added anything to the 2008 staff except for payroll and bad publicity.

2008 Outlook

The Yankees should finish 2^nd in the AL East, and claim the Wild Card. They do have questions in the rotation (where their top two starters of Wang and Pettite trail behind other 1-2 punches in the AL) , and the bullpen, after Rivera and Chamberlain(and if Chamberlain moves to the rotation, do the Yankees have a reliable setup man) is unrealiable. The offense, which will regress after career years from Posada, and possibly A-Rod(it would be crazy to expect 54 homers and 156 RBI’s again), though will carry them, though one has to wonder for how much longer, given the age of their offense(31.3 on opening day for their likely top 10 hitters in 2008).

Continuing to look at 2008-Boston Red Sox

Continuing in alphabetical order through the AL East, we have the Boston Red Sox. As World Series champions, the Sox didn’t have to do much beyond resigning their own free agents.

Significant Additions

-Sean Casey

Significant Departures

-Eric Gagne

Sean Casey will provide a backup first baseman, and left-handed bat on the bench. I don’t foresee “The Mayor” taking any time away from Gold Glover Kevin Youklis. Unless Mike Lowell, who the Sox resigned, gets hurt and Youklis moves to third, Casey should see minimal time.

The departure of Eric Gagne was to be expected, and the Sox received a supplemental pick for the trouble of using Gagne for two months. Also expected was the resigning of Lowell, who was coming off a career year. A bit more unexpected was the resigning of Curt Schilling. Unfortunately, it was revealed earlier this month that Schilling will likely miss the first half of the season, and could in fact be done, with a shoulder injury.

Even without Schilling, the Red Sox rotation is more than capable of carrying on. Josh Beckett and Dice-K provide a good 1-2 punch (and I truly believe that Matsuzaka will pitch more like his first half self, and less like his September self), and can be counted on to take the ball about 70 times in 2008.

Two talented youngsters slide into the 3-4 spots in Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Lester missed part of last year recovering my lymphoma, but came back and pitched well in his 12 games. He then topped it off by pitching 5.2 scoreless innings in the World Series, clinching the title for the Red Sox. You may have heard of Buchholz, he pitched a no hitter in his second MLB start. He was shut down and left off the post-season roster, simply to preserve his young arm. Some scouts feel that Buchholz is a better prospect than the Yankees Joba Chamberlain. Buchholz struck out 356 batters over the course of 285.2 minor league innings, and has a career minor league ERA of 2.46 and WHIP of 1.00.

The offense remains largely unchanged. Its not unreasonable to think JD Drew can rebound from a poor showing, and if he does, it should offset a likely decline from Mike Lowell. The lineup is solid, though Julio Lugo remains a question mark. If he continues to struggle, it’s possible prospect Jed Lowrie could take some time away from him. Hot shot rookie Jacoby Ellsbury(who earned the thanks of a nation when his World Series stolen base netted everyone a free taco from Taco Bell) takes over for Coco Crisp in center.

2008 Outlook: Barring injury, I see this team winning the division, and possibly earning a return trip to the World Series.

2008 Outlook-Team by team starting with the Baltimore Orioles

In what I hope to be a daily feature, I'll be taking a look at each team going into 2008, where they improved themselves, what they lost, etc. We'll start in the AL East, alphabetically with the Baltimore Orioles.

Significant acquisitions:

-RHP Matt Albers

-LHP Troy Patton

-OF Luke Scott

-RHP Dennis Sarfate

-3B Michael Costanzo

-OF Adam Jones

-LHP George Sherrill

-RHP Chris Tillman

-RHP Kam Mickolio

-LHP Tony Butler

Significant departures

-SS Miguel Tejada

-LHP Eric Bedard

After years of waffling, the Orioles finally decided to trade Miguel Tejada, probably a few years too late. Still, they dealt him the day before his name was released on the Mitchell Report, so that’s a plus.

Overall, it was a decent haul. Scott has probably peaked, but he did out-produce Tejada last year, in fewer at bats. If the Orioles are smart, he’ll be shopped at the trade deadline, because I think his peak is now, and will be worth more long-term in a trade. Albers projects as a back of the rotation starter, while Patton profiles as a likely #3. Sarfate looks like a career minor leaguer, but Costanzo could help the Orioles in a year or two, as he has shown decent power and the propensity to take walks. According to Baseball America, some scouts view him as a first baseman in the making. Patton and Costanzo were numbers 3 and 6 on their Top 10 prospect list, respectively.

The real good stuff came in the Bedard deal. The Orioles decided that they wouldn’t be able to keep Eric Bedard(who is a free agent after 2009), and traded him while his name was hot. Bedard is coming off his best year as a pro, and if not for a September injury, would have likely finished higher than 5^th in the Cy Young Race(he finished with more strikeouts, and a lower WHIP and ERA than winner CC Sabathia, despite pitching 59 less innings).

This was the 4^th straight year that Bedard improved his ERA. WHIP, and strikeout totals. The hard-throwing lefty turns 29 in March, and could be poised for a big year in Seattle. The infield defense should be a great help(Bedard has a career 1.31 groundball to flyball ratio).

The Orioles got Adam Jones, who was the Mariners top prospect, and should slide into centerfield. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis should be the cornerstone of the offense for years to come. George Sherrill is a soon to be 31 year old lefty who lowered his ERA by almost 2 runs last year. While he could be useful in the AL East, if someone comes offering a decent prospect for him, the O’s should jump at the chance.

Tillman had the best curve in the Mariners system, and should give the O’s some rotation depth in the future. Tony Butler once ranked in the M’s Top 10 Prospect list, but struggled in Low A ball in 2007. Kam Mickolio is an interesting arm, and like Butler and Tillman, was drafted in 2006, so there is time to sort them out. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mickolio reaches the majors this year, after posting a solid 2.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in Double A and Triple A, while striking out more than a batter an inning.

In all, the O’s did well for themselves, and if Peter Angelos ever quits Brian Roberts, the O’s could add a few more big league capable pitchers. Still, the 2008 outlook is bleak, and 100 losses isn’t out of the question.

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Top moves of the offseason-looking back at the 2002 offseason

Inspired by a comment on my look back at the top moves of the offseason, I was inspired to go back and look at some of the transaction of the 2002 offseason. This isnt a comprehensive list, by any means, but an analysis of some of the more interesting moves that offseason.

The Colorado Rockies traded Juan Pierre, Mike Hampton, and cash to the Florida Marlins for Charles Johnson, Preston Wilson, Vic Darensbourg, and Pablo Ozuna

After 3 seasons in Colorado, in which he stole 100 bases, the Rockies shipped him in order to get rid of Hampton. Pierre had his 2nd best year(his best year came in 2004) playing centerfield for the World Series winning Marlins. He and Luis Castillo formed a very fast, very pesky top of the order, and Pierre actually finished 10th in the MVP voting. After 3 seasons in Florida, he was traded to the Cubs for Sergio Mitre, Renyel Pinto, and Ricky Nolasco. Hampton was traded two days later to the Braves for Tim Spooneybarger and a minor leaguer, along with some cash.

Charles Johnson was a shell of his former All-Star self at that point, and hit .230(albeit with 20 homers) at the age of 31. He was finished after 2005. Preston Wilson had his best year in 2003, collecting his only all-star appearance by leading the league in RBI's, and hitting 36 homers. He too went downhill pretty quickly, and played just 25 games for the Cardinals in 2007, and has never cracked 30 homers or 100 RBI's since. Darensbourg and Ozuna were blips on the radar for Colorado.

The Cleveland Indians traded Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese to the Texas Rangers for Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette.

Hoo boy, did this one pan out for the Indians. The complaint here isnt that the Rangers traded Hafner(though they probably shouldnt have), its that the didnt get enough. To understand this trade, you have to understand why Texas considered trading him.

At the time, Texas had Rafael Palmerio at first, who was coming off a 43 homer season, and Mark Teixeria coming up. They clearly didn’t have enough places to play these guys, though with Palmerio a free agent after 2003, it might have behooved them to stock up on depth.

Hafner meanwhile, was coming of 4 straight 20 homer seasons in the minors, slugging over .500 in all those seasons. His lowest OBP in that period was .373, and he peaked at .450.
Myette was a 24 year old right who had struggled in his time in the majors, but had posted good ERA’s and WHIP’s in the minors.

Diaz was a 29 year old catcher who posted a .542 OPS in 102 games in the majors. He had never posted a league average OPS to that point, and his best days in the minors had come back in 1998, when he posted a slightly above league average OPS of .782, though oddly below the team OPS. The Rangers were about to lose Pudge to free agency, so they were in need of a catcher.
Drese won 10 games in his rookie season of 2002, posting an ERA over 6 in the process. Drese had posted decent ERA and WHIP numbers in the minors.

At this point, you’d have to say the Indians got the player with the most potential, while Drese and Myette almost cancelled each other out, leaving Diaz. I think, at the time, not considering the years of hindsight here, that the Indians got an edge here.
You know how the rest turns out. Hafner became a near MVP candidate, Drese and Diaz spent a combined 3+ seasons in Texas(with Diaz playing just 2003 for the Rangers). Drese pitched well in 2004, winning 14 games and having a better than average ERA. Diaz was traded before the 2004 season in a deal for Chris Young, so he at least helped there. Myette was done in the majors after 2004.


The St. Louis Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter as a free agent

Carpenter signed with the Cardinals after being released earlier in the offseason by the Blue Jays. Carpenter missed most of 2002, and underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. It could be argued that Carpenter, a former first round pick, had been an average pitcher for the Jays, with a win loss record of 49-50, with a 4.83 ERA. However, he was just 27 at the time

The Cards took a chance on Carpenter, and monitored his health. He didn’t pitch at all in 2003, and came back to win 15 games and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award. He followed that up with a 21 win Cy Young year in 2005 , and won 15 games in 2006 for the WS Champs. Carpenter barely pitched in 2007, and underwent TJ surgery. Props though to the Cards front office, for taking a chance. They didn’t have to give up anything but money, paying him just $300,000 to miss all of 2003.

The Minnesota Twins released David Ortiz.
The Boston Red Sox signed David Ortiz as a free agent.

Think the Twins want this one back. Ortiz went on to greater things with the Sox, and has finished in the top 5 in MVP voting every year with the Sox, without winning one. Ortiz has hit 208 homers as their DH, and has been incredible in the postseason for them, hitting 11 homers in 160 postseason at bats with Boston.

There were rumors of a personality clash in Minnesota, but nothing has ever been substantiated
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The Atlanta Braves traded Kevin Millwood to the Philadelphia Phillies for Johnny Estrada.

Millwood was about to get a big raise via arbitration(he wound up 9+ million in 2003), and the Braves had committed too much money by acquiring Russ Ortiz, and the the surprise of Greg Maddux accepting arbitration. The Braves made a last minute move, and dealt the 18 game winner to division rival Philadelphia, getting catcher Johnny Estrada in the process. Javy Lopez went on to have a big 2003, and Estrada was barely seen in a Braves uniform.

Millwood posted below average ERA in his two years for the Phillies, and wound up signing with Cleveland after the 2005 season. The Phillies netted Adrian Cardenas with their compensation pick, and Cadenas has impressed in his two minor league seasons, posting a .784 OPS, and was ranked as the Phillies #2 prospect by Baseball America.

Estrada won the Silver Slugger award in 2004, hitting .314. It was his only year posting an OPS over league average, and he was traded after 2005 for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villareal.

The Chicago White Sox traded Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Liefer, and cash to the Montreal Expos for Bartolo Colon and Jorge Nunez

Colon went 15-13 for a 2nd place White Sox crew. After 2003, he signed with the Angels, and went on to win a Cy Young. The ChiSox netted Tyler Lumsden for their troubles.
El Duque never pitched for the White Sox, as he had arthroscopic surgery and missed all of 2003. He signed with the Yankees in the offseason. Biddle provided 2 seasons of what could be considered relief, and Liefer was waived during the 2003 season. In short, a whole lot of nothing.

Top moves of the offseason

Now that winter has turned into spring training, its time to look back at the best moves of the offseason.

October
-Braves send Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for Jair Jurrgens and Gorkys Hernandez.

The Braves managed to gain some much needed payroll, and added two useful prospects in the process. Jurrgens should give the Braves a #4 starter this year, and some projections have him as high as a #2 starter long term. Hernandez, along with Jordan Schaeffer, will provide the Braves with someone to eventually fill the void of Andrud Jones.

The Tigers meanwhile, get a decent glove who does a good job with the bat at short, and consequently, get to move Carlos Guillen to first, whose bat is a definite improvement over Sean Casey.

November

-Angels sign Torii Hunter

An interesting move, as the Angels already had Gary Matthews. But Hunter adds much more than Matthews(Gold Glove, better bat) that its a smart move. It does leave the Angels with an excess in the OF(Juan Rivera, Matthews, Reggie Willits, plus Hunter and Vlad, and Chone Figgins when he's not playing third), but I wouldnt be shocked to see Willits or Rivera traded before the start of the season.

-Twins send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.

Twins send a player whose stuff has ace pontential and get a player who has been compared to Vlad. I think this is a pretty even up deal, as the Twins could see Morneau, Mauer and Young blossom in the middle of the lineup for years, while the Rays add a pitcher who should slot in behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields for now. The Rays rotation in 2009/2010 is shaping up to be one of the best in the majors.

December
-Tigers acquireLHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins in exchange for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin.

Not sure how I feel about Willis moving to the AL. Its hard to imagine him pitching any worse, and getting away from Florida(where the coaching staff tinkered with his delivery) should help. He should benefit greatly from an improved defense(Polanco, Granderson, and Renteria are a huge improvement over Uggla, whomever was playing CF that week for the Marlins and Ramirez).

Cabrera forms a formidable 3-4-5 for Detroit, and a trip back to the WS isnt out of the question.

Florida gets the centerfielder they have needed for years in Maybin, while Andrew Miller could eventually be the ace of that Marlins rotation. Rabelo should take over as their everyday catcher.

-Diamondbacks acquire RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham and OF Carlos Gonzalez.

A huge move for the Diamondbacks, as a 1-2 punch of Webb and Haren stacks up with anyone in the National League. The key pieces for Oakland are Gonzalez, Anderson and Carter, and Gonzalez could be in center for the A's this year. Carter is a few years away, though where he will play when that time comes(possibly DH) remains to be seen.

-Rangers acquire Josh Hamilton from the Reds for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera.

The Rangers get a bonafide centerfielder, and if he can stay healthy and problem-free, could provide a middle of the order bat for years to come.
Volquez has never really pitched well at the MLB level, but has always been on the young side. I'm not sure I like his odds in Cincinatti, though the gopher ball has never been his problem at the minor league level. There are some questions on whether a guy with Herrera's stuff will be able to make it as a big league starter.

January
-A's trade OF Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and OF Ryan Sweeney.

The White Sox make a move to improve in the Central, though it remains to be seen whether it is enough to leapfrog the Indians and Tigers. The A's continue their rebuilding effort by acquiring cheap, young arms, along with a decent OF prospect in Sweeney.

February
-Mets acquire LHP Johan Santana from the Twins for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber and RHP Kevin Mulvey.

This trade could pan out in 3-5 years for the Twins. Guerra is the wild card, a 19 year old whom scouts love and see as a potential ace. Humber should slide into the Twins rotation this year, and projects as a back end guy. Mulvey's ceiling is as a mid-rotation, and he could be up later this year. Gomez will be in the mix for the centerfield job, and his defense is a plus there. He hasnt shown much power at any level, so it remains to be seen how far he'll go. Worst case, he's a Juan Pierre with a better arm.

The Mets get the ace they've been craving, and with one of the 5 best pitchers in all of baseball on their side, they move to the top of the NL East class, though it wont be an easy job to win it. Not much to say about it that hasnt already been said.


And there you have it. I'm hoping to put together a division by division look, starting next week.