Johan and the trade market.

Boy is this fun. You got two intense rivals(Yankees and Red Sox)in on the best pitcher in baseball, plus the Angels(supposedly) and a bunch of other teams.

Right now, there is alot of bluster about what the Twins are demanding. And believe me, they have every right to demand for a guy who is a Cy Young contender. Names like Reyes, Cano, Ellsbury, Hughes are all being tossed around like ping pong balls in a blender.

The Yankees have refused to part with Joba Chamberlain but have put Hughes out there(seems there has been a shift in the pecking order, considering that Hughes was the Yankees #1 prospect according to Baseball America this past winter). Rumor has it that they offered Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy for him. I'm not as high on Cabrera as others are(I think he's a Coco Crisp clone), and Kennedy looks like a #3 starter at best. Hughes is the gem of the deal of course, and could be a stud. Heck, if only Hughes turns out the way people think, the Twins break even likely.

The Sox have made Ellsbury their no-no guy, but have offered up Jed Lowrie(top shortstop prospect) Jon Lester, and Coco Crisp, at least. Rumor was there was a 4th player(possibly Masterson). Intersting deal, but I think I'd prefer Hughes to anyone in this offer, but its deeper in players who will help the Twins more.

I think eventually, the Sox will cave and swap Crisp for Ellsbury, and the Twins will jump all over it. If that happens, its a solid deal for the Twins, as they get two players they can plug in right now, and Lowrie isnt that far away either. And some scouts think that Lester will be better than Kennedy anyway. They could eventually wind up with 2 All-Stars from this, maybe more.

Supposedly, the Mets are pushing hard for Eric Bedard, who it doesnt look like the O's can sign to a long term deal. Apparently, their offer of Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber and Aaron Heilman was turned down. I think if the Mets push, they could work something out. But they need to step up their package, and include someone like Kevin Mulvey instead of Humber, and maybe add a 4th player, someone like Mike Carp? I think the O's would be happy with this, as they get a dependable reliever(perhaps someone who can jump into the #5 spot), a starting centerfielder and a projected #3/4 starter.

Obviously the Mets get an ace in return, a player who has lowered his ERA while increasing his strikeout totals for 4 straight seasons. If need be, the Mets should consider taking a contract dump(an Aubrey Huff or a Baez) if it helps it get done. To me, this is a better alternative to Dan Haren, whom I like. I think Haren is a #2/3 starter, while Bedard is an ace who would flourish at Shea.

Transactions for the week of 11/21-11/30

Technically, 9 days is not a week, but whatever. Works has kept me too busy to write one of these bad boys, but there has been alot to happen lately, that it seems fitting to write about it.

Kenny Rogers resigns with Tigers

A good move, at a reasonable price. Rogers should provide a solid prescence in the middle of the rotation, and I think the Tigers needed him.

Mets trade Guillermo Mota to the Brewers for Johnny Estrada

I've heard of win-win but lose-lose. This was a classic "I'll trade my headache for yours" kind of deal, except that because of the next deal, the Mets win.

Mets trade Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider

I know most Mets fans hate this one, but I think it comes out ok for them. Milledge has been overrated for years, and most of his 2007 line came from killing lefties, while being awful against righties. While I think he may turn into a 20 HR/15 steal kind of guy, I'm far from convinced that he's gonna be a star. Especially if he doesnt improve against righties. I get a Alex Ochoa/Jay Payton vibe here.

Church, meanwhile should help the Mets more in 2008 than Milledge would. He posted a solid OPS+(On base plus Slugging normalized to the leauge) of 115, meaning he was 15% better than the average hitter. He's hitting his peak years(just turned 29) and he is under their control for a few more years. Schneider might be the best defensive catcher the Mets have had since Gary Carter, which is pretty sad when you think about how long ago that was. It will be nice to see a runner thrown out trying to steal.

This trade makes Estrada irrelevant, and I suspect, a top non-tender candidate.

Twins trade Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon to the D-Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie

I like the D-Rays side of this equation. Harris is really a utility guy pretending to be an everday shortstop who will be out of a job once Reid Brignac is called up. Garza is projected to have front of the rotation stuff, and gives the D-Rays a very solid rotation, one that will get even better when David Price makes his debut. Rincon helps improve a bullpen that needed help.

Thats not to say the Twins got ripped off. Some projections of Young have him as the next Vlad Guerrero. He certainly fits the profile, and despite the hype, had a halfway decent rookie year(including 93 RBI's). Still, you'd like to see the average and OBP climb up some more. I think long term this will be a wash, but right now, I think the D-Rays come out a little ahead.

D-Rays sign Troy Percival

I think between the Twins trade and this signing, the D-Rays have improved their pen tremendously, and have candidates should Al Reyes falter in his 2nd year as closer. I'm guessing that Percival will be a every other day setup man, working in tandem with Rincon.

Reds sign Francisco Cordero

Alot of money for a guy thats not going to help the Reds that much in the standings. They have a bigger need for a starter to slot in behind Harang/Arroyo because its a bunch of unknowns after that. Blowing that much money on a closer smacks of a PR move.

Brewers sign Jason Kendall, Dave Riske

I like the Kendall signing. A solid .350 OBP behind the plate, even with no power, is nothing to sneeze at. At least they wont be giving away outs from the catcher position like they were last year with Estrada.

Riske I am less fond of. Losing Cordero really hurts, so what do they do? They sign an unneeded middle reliever. Riske had a good year with the Royals, but I suspect he's not going to post an ERA that low(2.45) again. I'm guess ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.29, 1.30. Not bad, but not really needed either.


There were a few other transactions(Posada signs officially, Kerry Wood resigns with Cubs) that have either been covered, or just dont need alot said about them. Til next time!

NL MVP

The National League MVP race is an interesting one. Going into September, the Mets David Wright was one of the leading contenders, and likely had an inside track on it, over Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder and Jimmy Rollins, because of his teams position in the standings.

Then September happened, and everything turned topsy-turvy. The Mets collapsed, the Phillies surged and took advantage, and the Rockies just about turned in the 1927 Yankees in the last 2 weeks of the season, leaving the Mets out in the rain, looking at the warm dinner being served to the other two.

Even though the collaps was in no way Wright's fault, his MVP candidacy will suffer for it, as he has been effectively knocked out. With him out of the way, lets look at the other candidates.

Fielder, 1B, Brewers-Knocked the cover off the ball, hitting 50 homers and knocking in 119. He earned his first All-Star Game apperance, and his first Silver Slugger. He led the league in homers, and was top 5 in RBI's, extra base hits, slugging, OPS, runs and intentional walks. Working against him is the Brewers finish, after leading the Central for the first 3 months, they finished 2nd to the Cubs. Order of finish: 3rd

Rollins, SS, Phillies-Before the season, Rollins claimed that the Phillies on paper were the team to beat in the NL East, and eventually, they proved him right. Rollins joined Curtis Granderson in the 20-20-20 club, hitting 38 doubles, 20 triples, and 30 homers, and added 41 steals. He also won his first Gold Glove, making 11 errors this year. He led the league in runs, triples, and most interestingly, outs made. He wasnt even the best player on his team(that honor belongs to either Chase Utley or Ryan Howard, depending on how you feel), but his words prior to the season garnered him alot of attention, which helps his MVP cause. Order of finish: 2nd

Holliday, LF, Rockies-For the 4th straight year, Holliday improved his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage, even more remarkable considering that those numbers werent shabby to start with. In his 4th year, he established himself not just as a star, but as one of the best players in the game. The Rockies September push put him in the national conciousness, and he led the league in two very important categories(in the eyes of the media): batting average and RBI's. He also led the league in total bases and extra base hits, besting fielder despite yielding 14 homers to him. Leading the league in doubles will do that. More importantly though, when the Rockies needed him most, he produced. He hit .365 with 12 homers in September/October. Even better, in the one game playoff with the Padres, Holliday tied the game up with the Rockies trailing in the bottom of the 13th with a triple, and scored the winning run on a sac fly. Order of finish:1st

My guess is the the Mets swoon pushes Wright to 4th, where no one will even remember. Holliday wins a much deserved MVP award. It's amazing the quality of young stars the NL is pumping out, as Holliday turns 28 in January, while Rollins turns 29 next week, and Wright and Fielder are under 25.

Orlando Cabrera traded for Jon Garland

The Los Angeles Angels traded Gold Glove winner Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago Whitesox for starting pitcher Jon Garland. An interesting move, I guess this paves the way for Brandon Wood to finally become a regular. The Angels could do worse for a 4th starter, but its odd that they had to kick in cash.

I suppose this makes Joe Saunders the 5th starter for the Angels, and could signal the end of Ervin Santana's inconsistent days for them. Santana is worth taking a look at for some teams, as he turns 25 in January, and did manage to win 16 games, while posting a 4.26 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2006. Maybe as part of a Miguel Cabrera package?

For the White Sox, this is an odd move. Garland was their #3 starter, after Mark Buerhle and Javier Vazquez. Considering the way Jose Contreras pitched last year, its a big risk on their part. Cabrera should be better than Juan Uribe, considering how poor Uribe played last year. The move adds a decent on base guy to the top of their lineup who can steal a base, and play excellent defense. I'm guessing that Uribe is moved to 2B, or traded, though I dont see the market for a player who failed to slug over .400 or post an OBP over .300 being all that great, even if he is only making 4.5 million.

AL MVP

The question isnt who will win the AL MVP, but more like, will it be unanimous? My guess is that yes, A-Rod will win his 3rd MVP and no one will vote against him. How could anyone? He led the league in 2 of the 3 Triple Crown categories, and hit .314 to boot(good for 13th). He also led the AL in slugging, was 4th in OBP, and added 24 steals(against 4 caught stealings), good for 14th.

I guess the real question is, who finishes second? I'm guessing David Ortiz, who finished .001 behind Rodriguez in OPS.

This week in Free agency

I'm hoping/expecting this to be a weekly post, looking at the week in hot stove activity. So for the week of 11/10-11/16 we have:
-Todd Jones re-signing with the Tigers
-Jorge Posada re-signing with the Yankees
-The Mets signing Yorvit Torrealba
-The Yankees re-signing A-Rod
-The Cubs trading Craig Monroe

Because of another freak injury to Joel Zumaya, the Tigers had their hand forced into resigning Todd Jones. The 1 year, $7 million deal wasnt terrible, and probably very reasonable by current standards. There was some thought that they should have just used Fernando Rodney instead of Jones, but that probably wouldnt have been a wise move. For one, you dont know how Rodney would have reacted to being the closer. For another, the bump up to the other relievers(like moving Zach Miner into a more key spot)would have weakened the pen considerably. In the end, it was the easiest move to make. One piece of advice for the Tigers: When Zumaya is not pitching, please place him in bubble wrap, for your benefit, and the benefit of my strat team.

I dont think there was any doubt that the Yankees would resign Posada. The question was what would it cost them. Posada has an amazing year, winning the Silver Slugger and being selected to his 5th All-Star team. Even more amazing considering that he turned 36 in August. The Yankees gave him 4 years, which means by the time he's done, he'll be a 40 year old catcher. Or more likely, a 40 year old DH/first baseman. The Yankees reluctance to extend him in spring training probably cost them money and years, and its the latter they will regret. You have to wonder how much more his body can take behind the plate, and it would be a shock to see him playing more first base in 2009. The one thing working in his favor is the fact that the Yankees held him back when he did reach the majors. He didnt catch more than 120 game at the big league level until he was 28. That could work in his, and consequently, the Yankees favor. Still, you see what Mike Piazza is like now, I wouldnt be surprised to see Posada as a shell of his former self in 2 seasons.

The Mets signing Yorvit Torrealba is a head scratcher. On the one hand, he gets lot of credit for his passion, his handling of the pitching staff, and being a good defensive catcher. On the other hand, his bat would make Charlie O'Brien blush. Paired with Ramon Castro, I think he'll be ok, but why give him so much money(just under 15 million) for 3 years? I woudlnt be surprised to see Castro wind up with the bulk of playing time when it becomes clear that Torrealba doesnt do much with the bat. If the Mets were so concerned with defense and handling a pitching staff, why not sign Jose Molina, who likely would have come cheaper and for less years. I fear that the Mets set the market now, and whereas someone like Michael Barrett would have gotten close to 5 million a year, he's going to be able to get more now.

The Twins acquiring Craig Monroe is the kind of move that you think, well Ok, but why? to. He'll be 31 on opening day, and is coming off a season in which he failed to slug .400. He doesnt have much plate discipline(career OBP of .303), his main attribute is that he has pop. Prior to 2007, he had averaged 22 homers a year for the previous 4 seasons. If he can get back to that level, the Twins have a cheap LF/DH option on their hands, but its not a move that really pushes them forward.

And finally, A-Rod. I wrote about him yesterday, so I'll keep it brief. It was a move that the Yankees really needed, no matter what anyone tells you. A lineup with a 3-4-5 of Abreu-Matsui-Posada is very different from a lineup with Abreu-A-Rod-Matsui. The bat of A-Rod makes the hitters around him better. From a financial standpoint, having a Yankee break the Home Run Record is a liscence to print money.

Monday is the Alex, excuse AL MVP award, so we'll cover that then. If you're keeping score at home, I got the AL and NL rookies of the year, NL Cy Young and AL manager of the year, and missed on the AL Cy Young and NL Manager of the year. Four out of Six, not too bad.

The whole A-Rod situation

Well, who saw this coming? Part of me is convinced that this is some sort of negotiating ploy by Boras, because who would put himself through the humiliation of this. A sampling of headlines this morning revealed that A-Rod is crawling back(complete with picture of him on his hands and knees of course). Lovely.

Anyway, if A-Rod is back with the Yankees, I think they are a better team than I initially felt. Without A-Rod, they lacked that fear of god middle of the order hitter. The Yankees do have some question marks, dont get me wrong(first base, will Melky hit like a major leaguer, will the young pitchers hold up well over a full season), but they are no worse off than last year. I'm still predicting 2009 as the year it starts to fall apart(Posada catching, Damon trying to play centerfield, no Abreu, a declining Matsui, etc), but thats over a year away, so Yankee fans, enjoy the ride while it lasts.

NL Cy Young

This one is so easy to forecast that I'll eat my sock if he doesnt win. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres, come on down.

Seriously, how can you vote against a guy that won the leagues pitching Triple Crown(Wins, ERA and strikeouts for those who werent sure what that was). And for good measure, he led the league in WHIP. Thats 4 major pitching categories he led the league in. He was also 4th in the league in innings. His only competition likely will come from last years Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, who was second in wins and ERA, and fourth in strikeouts, and seventh in WHIP. But the gap between the two is pretty wide. This one is as easy as the AL MVP, which ironically, is the next award to be revealed, on November 19th.

Managers of the Year

Missed on yesterday award(Cy Young), so lets take a shot at the AL and NL Managers of the year.

In the AL, I think Eric Wedge deserves it. An 18 game improvement, division title and they fell just 1 game shy of the WS. Considering the competition in the Central(Twins and Tigers specifically), winning the division was no easy feat.

In the NL, Clint Hurdle wins it going away. The Rockies finish(winning 14 of their last 15 regular season games), their 14 game improvement, and unlikely playoff march clinched it for him. Factor in that he's by all reports an affable guy that the media seems to like, and I think this one is in the bag.

Next award is tomorrow, the NL Cy Young, so look for a new post.

AL Cy Young

Today's the day the American League Cy Young winner is announced. It's a two horse race, with CC Sabathia battling Josh Beckett at the finish line, with Fausto Carmona and John Lackey battling for show.

Sabathia finished 2nd to Beckett in wins, 3rd in winning percentage, 5th in strikeouts, WHIP and ERA, while leading the AL in innings. Beckett led the AL in wins, was 6th in ERA and WHIP, 7th in strikeouts and 2nd in winning percentage. Sabathia got alot of credit for being a horse, and besides leading the AL in innings, was 2nd in complete games(behind Roy Halladay).

This one is easier than I first thought. I think Beckett wins because of the prescence of Carmona. Carmona will likely take some votes from Sabathia. Given Beckett's rebound from a poor 2006, it just makes it more likely he will be rewarded. Given how extraordinary Beckett was in the post-season(4 ER in 4 starts), it's likely the right call.

Rookie of the Year awards

Everyone know what time it is? It's time for awards! Yay!!!!!!!!!

I'll give my picks for each award, generally on the morning they are going to be announced. Today, the rookie of the year awards are announced for each league, generally around 2 PM.

In the American League, the top contenders are Dustin Pedroia, Brian Bannister, and Dice-K. Matsuzaka's poor finish probably eliminated him from contention. Still, 15 wins and 200 strikeouts definetly isnt a bad year. He just didnt set the world on fire like everyone thought he would.

Bannister was acquired from the Mets in the offseason in a move that turned out to be better than expected. Bannister finished 12-9, with a decent WHIP(1.21) and ERA(3.87), though he failed to make 30 starts. He was terrific in the summer months, going 11-4 from June through August, with a 2.88 ERA. He's not a strikeout pitcher, and he was helped greatly by limiting the homer(1 homer allowed for every 11 innings pitched).

And then there is little Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia slumped terribly early on, hitting .182 in April. But he came alive in May, and never looked back. He finished the year hitting .317, good for 10th in the AL, and actually walked more than he struck out, a rare feat these days. Though not a power hitter, Pedroia managed 39 doubles, and was superb in the field, committing just 6 errors in 137 games at second base.

In the end, I think it's going to be Pedroia. Bannisters poor finish(ERA over 7 in September), combined with Pedroia's visibility should give it to him. He's a throwback kind of player, the kind people like to root for.

In the National League, there is no race. Early on, in late April and early May, it looked like all Hunter Pence. Then the Brewers wisely called up Ryan Braun, and he effectively ended that race. Surprisingly, Braun didnt slow down all that much, though he had nowhere to go but down after that first half(1.054 OPS in the first half, versus .976 in the second half). Despite appearing in only 113 games, he finished 5th in the NL in homers, and would have led the senior circuit in slugging had he qualified. He even managed to steal 15 bases. While there has been some Trot Tulowitzki support, I cant imagine that Braun wont win it. I dont think it will be a shutout, it will be pretty close to one.

Gold Glove selections

American League:
1B - Kevin Youkilis, Boston
2B - Placido Polanco, Detroit
SS - Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles
3B - Adrian Beltre, Seattle
OF - Torii Hunter, Minnesota
OF - Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle
OF - Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
C - Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit
P - Johan Santana, Minnesota

National League:
1B - Derrek Lee, Chicago
2B - Orlando Hudson, Arizona
SS - Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia
3B - David Wright, New York
OF - Carlos Beltran, New York
OF - Andruw Jones, Atlanta
OF - Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia and Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta
C - Russell Martin, Los Angeles
P - Greg Maddux, San Diego

Some interesting selections. It was surprising to see Derek Jeter lose out on the GG, after winning it 3 years running. I've been advocating O-Cab over Jeter for while now, so it was a pleasant surprise. Cabrera has terrific range, and excellent hands.

David Wright was a big surprise as well, and I'm not certain he deserved it. By sabermetric standards he probably didnt. But with Rolen sidelines, and Zimmerman a little shakier than he was last year, there werent a whole lot of great candidates. Pedro Feliz was mentioned, as he was credited with improving his defense. He was first in the NL in fielding percentage, 3rd in assists and total chances, behind Zimmerman and Wright. However, he played in about 200 less innings than those two.

Martin and Francoeur won what I assume will be the first of many Gold Gloves in the National League, and it was good to see Sizemore win one, as watching him play he is one of the most exciting centerfielders out there.

The one selection I really had a problem with is Adrian Beltre's. Among qualified AL third baseman, Beltre was dead last in fielding percentage, and tied for the most errors. He was 2nd best in total chances. He fared well sabermetrically, placing 2nd in Range Factor, and 4th in Zone Rating. He wasnt bad, by any means. However, he wasnt the best either. I think the award should have gone to either Mike Lowell or Alex Rodriguez. Both were terrific defensively, and were the only AL 3B to turn at least 30 double plays. A-Rod ranked 4th in fielding percentage and 5th in total chances. Lowell was 7th in fielding percentage and 3rd in total chances. Still, Beltre isnt as bad as say, Rafael Palmerio.

Braves/Tigers trade

A very interesting trade went down earlier this week between the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves. The Braves sent shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Tigers in exchange for Jair Jurgens and Gorkys Hernandez. Jurgens is a 21 year old righty who made 7 starts for the Tigers this year, despite having never pitched in Triple A. That makes his 3-1 record, along with a 4.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP more impressive. Hernandez is a 20 year old centerfielder who just completed his first season of A-ball, hitting .293 with 54 steals. He's likely 3 years away from being a major league contributor.

Renteria is a solid shortstop. According to reports, the Tigers will be paying him a bit over 6 million, not a bad price for a guy who just his .332, and whose career OPS is 25% above the league average. The transaction cements the transition of Carlos Guillen to first base, where he is likely to outproduce the mayor, Sean Casey, in the first half.

My feeling in this trade is that the Tigers got a slight edge, at least for now. Jurgens should be able to pitch for the Braves, at the back of their rotation, and at least be league average. But Renteria basically improves the Tigers in two positions, with the Guillen move. Plus, I'd argue that Renteria is a steadier fielder than Guillen, who has made 52 errors the last two years at short, in 277 games.

The Braves meanwhile, plug the shortstop hole with the young Yunel Escobar, who hit .326 in 94 games in the majors this year. I think he overachieved just a tad, as his batting average on balls in play was an incredible .364. I think he settles into a .285-.300 groove, more in line with his minor league numbers. I think, if the Braves are planning on contending, turning over a key position to a player who has less than a years experience in the big leagues could prove to be a mistake.

Hernandez is the key to the deal. As of yet, he hasnt shown the power projected of him. The Tigers were dealing from a position of strength, with Curtis Granderson, and Cameron Maybin having to rank in front of him, plus Brent Clevlen is hanging around, hoping to rebound from a poor 2007. Jurgens and Hernandez ranked as the Tigers #4 and #7 prospects heading into 2007,according to Baseball America. For the short term, I like the Tigers. The long term is too up in the air, and could turn the Braves way, which is why I like the Tigers side just a tad more.