Apologies for not getting this up yesterday, the day just got away from me.
The Toronto Blue Jays have finished in 3rd place in the AL East eight of the last ten years, rising as high as 2nd in 2006, and finishing as low as last, in 2004. They have never managed to win more than 88 games, and the closest they have come to first was in 2001, when they finished 4.5 games back. Could this year be different?
Key Additions
-David Eckstein
-Marco Scutaro
-Scott Rolen
-Rod Barajas
-Shannon Stewart
Key Departures
-Troy Glaus
-Josh Towers
The 2007 Jays underachieved slightly, according to their Pythagorean W-L record, which had them at 87 wins (they won 83 in actuality). The Jays had the 2nd best runs allowed per game in the American League (Boston was first), however their offense was 10th in AL in runs scored per game. If the Jays were a league average offense in 2007, they would have won 86 games, not good enough to get them to the playoffs, but enough to get them into the discussion.
If the Jays choose to play David Eckstein over John McDonald, they could add another 20 runs to their lineup, though McDonalds defense is superior to Eckstein’s. That is compensated by the improvement in glove work at 3B, with Rolen being a huge improvement over Troy Glaus. If Rolen is healthy, he’ll be a better play offensively and defensively, which could benefit the Jays tremendously. A return to form by Vernon Wells, and this team could be on the edge of the wild-card debate.
The additions of Barajas, Scutaro and Stewart imrove the bench greatly, and give manager John Gibbons options late in the game, if he so chooses. There does appear to be a logjam in the OF, with 2 of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Matt Stairs, Adam Lind, Reed Johnson, and Shannon Stewart getting left out in the cold. Johnson and Stairs would be the perfect platoon in left, with Stairs posting a career OPS of .867 versus righties as a left handed bat, and Johnson posting an .833 versus lefties. Lind, a promising young left handed bat who posted a .900 OPS in the second half, could be in the mix as well, although a trade isn’t out of the question.
The rest of the lineup is secure, with Greg Zaun behind the plate, Lyle Overbay at first, the improving Aaron Hill at second, and Alex Rios in right.
If BJ Ryan is healthy, and returns to form, this might be the best bullpen in the division. The rotation is deep and talented, though questions remain about their health. After Roy Halladay, none are good bets to reach 200 innings. However, the innings that AJ Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Gustavo Chacin do give the Jays are quality innings.
2008 Outlook
An improvement by the offense could lead to this team getting in on the wild card discussion. If they can post a winning record against the Yankees or Red Sox, they could be in business. My guess is 88-90 wins, but they’ll fall short of the wild card.
