Friday, February 29, 2008

2008 Outlook-Tampa Bay Rays

Today we look at the up and coming Tampa Bay Rays, a team with a lot of promise. The franchise has been a cellar dweller from their inception, finishing last every year except 2004. That was the same year they managed to crack the 70 win plateau, though it took a win on the last day of the season to accomplish that feat.

Key Acquisitions

-Troy Percival

-Matt Garza

-Jason Bartlett

-Cliff Floyd

-Willie Aybar

Key Departures

-Elijiah Dukes

-Delmon Young

-Brendan Harris

The acquisition of Percival is a big one for the Rays. Their pen had the highest ERA in the majors last year, at 6.16, which was almost 2 runs higher than the major league average. Percival should help settle that, by moving Al Reyes, last years closer, into a setup role. Still, it’s going to take more than just Percival to get the bullpen to respectability.

The big acquisition was Matt Garza, who along with Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan, acquired from the Twins for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. Garza adds to the impressive collection of young arms the Devil Rays have put together. Garza should slide into the #3 slot, behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields, pushing Andy Sonnanstine to the status of #4 starter, with Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell will be keeping the seat warm for David Price, Jeff Niemann, or Wade Davis, among others. It would be interesting to see if the Rays would consider using Niemann in the pen this year, in an attempt to get him acclimated to the bigs, and to improve their pen.

Despite the loss of Young, who played every game, and Dukes, the Devil Rays outfield situation is in good shape. B.J. Upton should be expected to be the every day center fielder, with Carl Crawford in left. The Rays have option in right, including Floyd, Johnny Gomes and possibly Rocco Baldelli, depending on how he is recovering.

Tampa Bay’s offense is in good shape, the finished 15th in the majors in runs scored in 2007, and 12th in OPS. Even taking into account some regression from Carlos Pena, the improved right field situation (where the Devil Rays were 28th in OPS) should balance the scales. With Evan Longoria expected to play 3b, and Akinora Iwamura at 2b, the Rays have the potential to be above average offensively at 3 infield positions.

2008 Outlook

It comes down to pitching for the Devil Rays. The presence of Garza and Percival should improve the club. While I don’t believe they will be able to post their first winning season, they should be able to improve by 6-8 games, giving them their highest win total of all-time. They are a team to watch in 2009, and could play a spoiler role in the AL East if they can improve their record against the Red Sox, whom they went 5-13 against in ’07.




Coming Monday: The Toronto Blue Jays!

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