Statnut's Baseball Analysis

And now...the AL Statnutties

2008-11-05T16:03:00.004-05:00

Rookie of the Year: A few good candidates here: Joba Chamberlina of the Yankees, Chris Carter of the Rangers, Armando Gallaraga of the Tigers and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox. But one stands out above the rest, Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays. He led all rookies in homers despite playing only 122 games. His defense was generally solid, and he had a solid .343 OBP. He looks like a superstar in the making.

Player of the Year: An interesting category. My first instict was to go with Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, but after reviewing the data, I've chosen Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees instead. Rodriguez was third in the AL in homers with 35, finished second in OPS to Hamilton's teammate Milton Bradley, hit .302, stole 18 bases and was 8th in RBI's despite missing 24 games. You cant blame him for the Yankees disappointing finish, despite what "clutch" stats show. He hit 11 of his homers in the 7th inning or later.

Cy Young: Ordinarily, Roy Halladay would be a lock for this one, but you can't ignore Cliff Lee's year. All but left for dead after an awful 2007(5-8, 6.29) he rebounded to finish 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA. His four complete games were second to Halladay, as he became the first Indian since Bob Lemon in 1954 to lead the majors in wins(ironically, both tied the NL leader).

MVP: Once again, I'll be using my formula for this one. If you are unfamiliar with it, refer to the NL Statnutties(http://nutsaboutbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/10/first-annual-statnutties.html).

Your top 5 finishers:

3rd)-M. Cabrera, DET
M. Bradley, TEX
J. Hamilton, TEX
C. Quentin, CHI
K. Youklis, BOS
2nd)J. Mauer, MIN
1st) D. Pedroia, BOS

According to the formula, Pedroia is the Statnuttie AL MVP. I can honestly find little fault with this selection. Quentin and Mauer are deserving candidates, and I think had Quentin not missed most of September, he would have had a very strong case, as he would have likely led the AL in homers(he finished second despite not playing a game after September 1st), and would have been a top 5 finisher in RBI's and runs. Still, Pedroia led the AL in runs, and was 2nd in batting average, while playing terrific defense at 2B. He even managed to double last years home run total with 17 this year, and stole 20 bases.

So there you have it. Agree? Disagree? Leave it in the comments, I'd love to hear about it.

The first annual National League Statnutties

2008-10-30T12:20:00.002-04:00

Now that the post-season is over, its time for the 1st annual Statnutties! The Statnutties consist of 4 awards: MVP, Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Pitcher of the Year.

First up, Rookie of the Year. There are several contenders: Reds first baseman Joey Votto, Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens, Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda, and Cubs catcher Geovany Soto. Despite Votto’s late season surge that gave him more homers and a higher OPS than Soto, I have to give the Statnuttie Rookie of the Year to Geovany Soto. As a starting catcher on a division winning team, his 23 homers were the most for a rookie catcher since Mike Piazza(1993). Runner up: Votto

Next up, Player of the Year. Player of the Year is different from MVP, in that POY is more about who had the best year, regardless of value to team and team’s finish. There are some good candidates for this one, but none better than St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols. Pujols was 2nd in the NL in batting average, 4th in RBI’s and 4th in home runs. In fact, he was the only player in the NL to finish top 5 in those three categories. For good measure, he was 4th in doubles and 2nd in walks. A truly amazing player, it seems like he puts up the same numbers every year. Amazingly, he’s never had a year where he batted below .314, or hit fewer than 32 homers. He’s probably the best Cardinal position player since Stan Musial. Runner up: Chipper Jones, Atlanta. Jones led the National League in batting, but his missed time probably cost him, as he finished with only 22 homers and 75 RBI’s.

Next to last we have Pitcher of the Year. The four big contenders are Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, and Brandon Webb. Santana led the NL in ERA, was 2nd in strikeouts, and 7th in wins. He also led the National League in quality starts with 28. Dempster went from bullpen mediocrity in 2007 to top of the line starter in 2008. He was 4th in ERA, 3rd in wins, and 8th in quality starts. An impressive year from someone that was only being counted on to be a #5 starter. Webb, the 2006 NL Cy Young award winner, won 20 games for the first time in his career, finishing with 22 as the only NL pitcher to win 20. He was in the top 10 in ERA, complete games, and quality starts. But no ones season was not as impressive as Lincecum, the Statnuttie pitcher of the year. Lincecum went 18-5, posting a winning percentage that was .339 better than his teams. He led the National in strikeouts, and was second to Santana in ERA and quality starts. Runner up: Santana

And last but not least we come to MVP. For the MVP, I have devised a little formula. I have not tried it out yet, so this will be an almost live experiment. The formula is thus:
-1 point for playing on a winning team
-2 points for playing on a playoff team
-1 point for being a catcher, shortstop, second baseman or centerfielder
-1 point for a top 5 finish in homers, RBI’s, runs, batting average or OPS
-3 points for leading the league in one of those categories.

So lets see who the top 5 are:
5)R. Braun/G. Soto/L.Berkman: 4
4)C. Utley: 5
3)H. Ramirez: 6
2)A. Pujols: 8
1)R. Howard:11

Interesting. My formula picked someone I wouldn’t pick myself. In Howards favor are: led the league in homers and RBI’s, and played on a playoff team. Why I wouldn’t pick Howard personally, is how awful he played most of the year. Also, no National League MVP has ever had a batting average lower than .267, and that was during World War II(and Stan Musial should have won that award anyway).
But there you have it. I’ll stand by the formula. Ryan Howard is the 2008 Statnuttie MVP Award. I’ll be curious to see what others think. As for the MVP Formula, I'll continue to tweak it.

MLB's World Series embarrasment

2008-10-28T13:04:00.004-04:00

Bud Selig suspending yesterday's Game 5 was a huge deal. Never in history has a World Series game been suspended, nor has one been called on account of rain. Had the Rays not scored in the top of the 6th, shortly before the game was suspended, under MLB rules the Phillies would have technically had a case for them to be declared World Series winners. Bud Selig claims he would not have allowed that. But either way, it would have been a disaster, and left a bad taste in fans mouths.

This is on top of the, at best, shoddy umpiring we've seen thus far. There have been 3 blown calls(Baldelli's walk in Game 2, Moyer's tag in Game 3, and Rollins being taged out at 3rd in Game 4). All of them were big calls, and all were blown badly. This is on top of the awful strike zones being used. Last night, Scott Kazmir threw two perfect strike threes in the 5th to Pat Burrell. Too bad home play umpire Jeff Kellog called them balls 3 and 4. In the top of the 6th, the same pitch was ruled a strike for Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels.

MLB has a problem on their hands. Game 3 was a terrific game, with an exciting finish. Too bad that many East Coasters were probably in bed by the time it end, seeing as it started almost 2 hours late.

There's no excuse for these types of things. World Series games should not be starting at 8:30 on a Saturday night. Nor on a weeknight. My solutions:

1)Weekend World Series games start at 5:30 PM EST. This would allow kids to actually stay up and watch a game from start to finish. I guarantee that fans will tune in even if the game isnt in prime time.

2)Weekday World Series games start at 7 PM EST. This will put the games into prime-time, but still have them start early enough that games wont end around midnight on the east.

3)With all of the technology around for weather forecasting, why didnt it occur to anyone to move up Game 3 and Game 5's start time, to avoid the problems that occurred. You can't tell me that on Saturday morning, MLB didnt know that rain would be a problem around game time. Had they been flexible and moved the game up 2-3 hours, there wouldnt have been a problem.

4)Change the archaic rain rules. If a game has any kind of implications(playoff game, regular season game that could clinch a playoff spot), allow for it to be made up later. Don't declare a winner based on 4 and a half innings of play. That would be like the NFL determining a game at the half.

5)Make sure a)the very best umpires are calling a WS game year in and year out, and b)blown playoff calls weigh heavily against an umpire when it is time to hand out World Series assignments.

I'm sure MLB will take none of these suggestions under consideration, because for the first 3, FOX rules those decisions. But maybe with the upcoming MLB Network, baseball will be able to regain some measure of control over these things.

Game 5 Preview

2008-10-27T17:30:00.002-04:00

Joe Maddon's lineup shakeup is interesting, but leading off with Iwamura, who hasnt had a hit since game 1 may be a critical mistake. Inserting Baldelli is interesting, and makes sense with the lefty Hamels on the mound. I like the 2-3-4-5 of Crawford/Upton/Pena/Longoria, but will it be too little, too late?

I'm gonna say Rays have one more win in them, and scratch together just enough offense to force a game 6.

Stick a fork in the Rays

2008-10-26T23:18:00.000-04:00

they're done for in Game 4. They can only hope they have enough fight in them to get it back to Tampa. One game at a time.

Ryan Madson

2008-10-26T23:07:00.000-04:00

sure has come a long way from failed starter.

This heart of the order

2008-10-26T22:57:00.000-04:00

has no pulse. You cant win if your big hitters arent hitting.

Phillies pen

2008-10-26T22:48:00.000-04:00

Is lights out. Maybe all of them can be the WS MVP?

If the Rays lose Game 4

2008-10-26T22:44:00.000-04:00

Maddon should consider dropping Iwamura to the 8th spot against the lefty Hamels, and playing Fernando Perez in right field, batting leadoff. They are struggling offensively, so perhaps the new, speedy blood at the top of the lineup could invigorate them.

I give

2008-10-26T22:41:00.000-04:00

Iwamura a 30% chance of reaching base here.

Wonder if going to Kazmir in game 4

2008-10-26T22:36:00.002-04:00

Would have made a difference. Last time a Game 1 starter started Game 4 was in 2001, Curt Schilling against the Yankees.

good at-bat

2008-10-26T22:25:00.001-04:00

Even though Utley struck out, he really made Jackson work for it.

Phillies Pitchers

2008-10-26T22:11:00.001-04:00

are getting the calls the last two nights. I wonder if they're getting the benefit of a wider strike zone because they're "veterans", while the Rays pitchers are unproven "kids". Wouldn't surprise me at all, not that anyone would admit it.

Dang

2008-10-26T22:06:00.001-04:00

You dont expect to see that in the WS. Jackson did give up 23 homers this year, but to a pitcher, thats inexcusable. Last pitcher to hit a homer in the WS, as noted in the telecast, was Ken Holtzman, also in game 4, and for Oakland, Blanton's old team.

Rays have a gripe

2008-10-26T22:03:00.003-04:00

They've really been victimized by poor calls and inconsistent strike zone. That same pitch was a strike for Blanton last inning. Last night, Moyer received a number of calls that were boderline at best(including one that I swear was on the chalk of the batter box. On the opposite side of the hitter).

New poll

2008-10-26T22:03:00.001-04:00

It's early, but tell me who you think the WS MVP thus far is? If other, leave it in the comments.

The Rays

2008-10-26T21:57:00.001-04:00

cant catch a break. Looks like I was half right, Sonnanstine gone after 4 innings. Good call though hitting Hinske. Now if the Rays could just get some runners on...

This is why

2008-10-26T21:48:00.001-04:00

the talk of not throwing Howard a fastball is silly. Feed him a steady diet of breaking balls, and he'll eventually time it and do that.

Conversely

2008-10-26T21:46:00.001-04:00

the Rays were 13-24 when trailing after the first.

When ahead

2008-10-26T21:40:00.001-04:00

the Phillies were 36-10 when leading after the 1st inning this year.

Crawford

2008-10-26T21:37:00.002-04:00

Nice shot. Hopefully it will wake them up, cause they have looked dead to this point. Who would have guessed Crawford would lead the team in homers during the WS?

How much longer

2008-10-26T21:30:00.002-04:00

Can Sonnanstine survive? How much longer will the Phillies leave runners on base? Tampa is lucky to be in this game, they have to take advantage of that soon.

Finally.

2008-10-26T21:19:00.000-04:00

Man, it was like watching a slow death. Can Ruiz continue his hot hitting?

Floodgates

2008-10-26T21:16:00.001-04:00

I have a feeling that error is going to open the gates for the Phils.

Blanton

2008-10-26T21:09:00.001-04:00

is cruising. No one is making him work. 42 pitches through 3 innings. With 4 strikeouts. By the way, Blanton's career high is 10 whiffs in a game. WS record is Bob Gibson with 17. I think that's pretty safe.

Settling in-end of the 2nd

2008-10-26T21:01:00.001-04:00

Looks like Sonny settled in nicely in the 2nd. He needs to keep that going, and he needs his offense to pick him up. Pena and Longoria are scuffling, someone else needs to pick up the slack? Iwamura? Or Upton?

Hacking is right-bottom 2nd

2008-10-26T20:53:00.000-04:00

The Rays arent going up there with any kind of idea. They are taking terrible swings, and thats giving Blanton all sorts of confidence.

Wasted chances-End of the 1st

2008-10-26T20:50:00.000-04:00

When will this come back to bite the Phillies? Cant leave the bases loaded like, with a chance to knock out a young pitcher. Let's see how Tampa responds.

Pat Burrell

2008-10-26T20:46:00.000-04:00

is one of those players who won't be appreciated by Philly fans until he leaves. He's more known for what he doesnt do(hit for a high average, play good defense) than what he does do well(hit 30+ homers, post high OBP's). It's a shame.

Bad decision, bad call

2008-10-26T20:43:00.000-04:00

Hate to agree with McCarver, but there was no reason to not turn two on that one. And Rollins was clearly out.

Werth

2008-10-26T20:41:00.000-04:00

Boy is he a good fundamental ball player. One of the best unnoticed free agent signings of the last few years. Dodgers and the Blue Jays made a mistake letting him get away.

Not a good start

2008-10-26T20:39:00.001-04:00

The Rays cant afford to let the Phillies get out ahead early again. Like Garza last night, Sonnanstine looks wild and uncomfortable.

Sonnanstine

2008-10-26T20:37:00.001-04:00

looks wild in warmups. We'll see how that translates to the game.

Bottom of 1st

2008-10-26T20:30:00.000-04:00

Blanton looked good early on. I have to question why Pena was swinging there.

Prediction

2008-10-26T20:26:00.000-04:00

Tonights going to be a high-scoring game. Neither pitcher will last more than 5 innings.

Poll on tonights starters

2008-10-26T20:23:00.001-04:00

Curious as to what anyone out there thinks about the pitching matchup tonight, so there's a poll on the right side. Vote if you want.

Lineups

2008-10-26T20:08:00.000-04:00

The lineups are pretty much the same, with the exception of Ben Zobrist starting in rightfield. I havent understood this move at all this post-season. Zobrist has played 2 regular season games in rf, both coming this year. He has Eric Hinske, Fernando Perez, Gabe Gross, and Rocco Baldelli on the bench. Zobrist did manage 24 extra base hits in less than 200 AB's this year, but I would think it would be risky asking him to play an unfamiliar position on the WS.

Tonights pitching matchup

2008-10-26T20:00:00.000-04:00

An interesting matchup. Andy Sonnanstine has been excellent in the playoffs, allowing a .220 OBP, and is 2-0. Joe Blanton on the other hand, is 1-0, but hitters are teeing off on him, posting a .340 OBP. This could be the pitcher Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena have been waiting for to get their WS into gear.

Live Blogging tonights WS game

2008-10-26T19:59:00.000-04:00

I'll be doing some live-blogging during Game 4 tonight. Joe Blanton vs Andy Sonnanstine.

2008 Outlook-Toronto Blue Jays

2008-03-04T10:45:00.001-05:00

Apologies for not getting this up yesterday, the day just got away from me.

The Toronto Blue Jays have finished in 3^rd place in the AL East eight of the last ten years, rising as high as 2^nd in 2006, and finishing as low as last, in 2004. They have never managed to win more than 88 games, and the closest they have come to first was in 2001, when they finished 4.5 games back. Could this year be different?

Key Additions

-David Eckstein

-Marco Scutaro

-Scott Rolen

-Rod Barajas

-Shannon Stewart

Key Departures

-Troy Glaus

-Josh Towers

The 2007 Jays underachieved slightly, according to their Pythagorean W-L record, which had them at 87 wins (they won 83 in actuality). The Jays had the 2^nd best runs allowed per game in the American League (Boston was first), however their offense was 10^th in AL in runs scored per game. If the Jays were a league average offense in 2007, they would have won 86 games, not good enough to get them to the playoffs, but enough to get them into the discussion.

If the Jays choose to play David Eckstein over John McDonald, they could add another 20 runs to their lineup, though McDonalds defense is superior to Eckstein’s. That is compensated by the improvement in glove work at 3B, with Rolen being a huge improvement over Troy Glaus. If Rolen is healthy, he’ll be a better play offensively and defensively, which could benefit the Jays tremendously. A return to form by Vernon Wells, and this team could be on the edge of the wild-card debate.

The additions of Barajas, Scutaro and Stewart imrove the bench greatly, and give manager John Gibbons options late in the game, if he so chooses. There does appear to be a logjam in the OF, with 2 of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Matt Stairs, Adam Lind, Reed Johnson, and Shannon Stewart getting left out in the cold. Johnson and Stairs would be the perfect platoon in left, with Stairs posting a career OPS of .867 versus righties as a left handed bat, and Johnson posting an .833 versus lefties. Lind, a promising young left handed bat who posted a .900 OPS in the second half, could be in the mix as well, although a trade isn’t out of the question.

The rest of the lineup is secure, with Greg Zaun behind the plate, Lyle Overbay at first, the improving Aaron Hill at second, and Alex Rios in right.

If BJ Ryan is healthy, and returns to form, this might be the best bullpen in the division. The rotation is deep and talented, though questions remain about their health. After Roy Halladay, none are good bets to reach 200 innings. However, the innings that AJ Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Gustavo Chacin do give the Jays are quality innings.

2008 Outlook

An improvement by the offense could lead to this team getting in on the wild card discussion. If they can post a winning record against the Yankees or Red Sox, they could be in business. My guess is 88-90 wins, but they’ll fall short of the wild card.

2008 Outlook-Tampa Bay Rays

2008-02-29T14:33:00.000-05:00

Today we look at the up and coming Tampa Bay Rays, a team with a lot of promise. The franchise has been a cellar dweller from their inception, finishing last every year except 2004. That was the same year they managed to crack the 70 win plateau, though it took a win on the last day of the season to accomplish that feat.

Key Acquisitions

-Troy Percival

-Matt Garza

-Jason Bartlett

-Cliff Floyd

-Willie Aybar

Key Departures

-Elijiah Dukes

-Delmon Young

-Brendan Harris

The acquisition of Percival is a big one for the Rays. Their pen had the highest ERA in the majors last year, at 6.16, which was almost 2 runs higher than the major league average. Percival should help settle that, by moving Al Reyes, last years closer, into a setup role. Still, it’s going to take more than just Percival to get the bullpen to respectability.

The big acquisition was Matt Garza, who along with Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan, acquired from the Twins for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. Garza adds to the impressive collection of young arms the Devil Rays have put together. Garza should slide into the #3 slot, behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields, pushing Andy Sonnanstine to the status of #4 starter, with Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell will be keeping the seat warm for David Price, Jeff Niemann, or Wade Davis, among others. It would be interesting to see if the Rays would consider using Niemann in the pen this year, in an attempt to get him acclimated to the bigs, and to improve their pen.

Despite the loss of Young, who played every game, and Dukes, the Devil Rays outfield situation is in good shape. B.J. Upton should be expected to be the every day center fielder, with Carl Crawford in left. The Rays have option in right, including Floyd, Johnny Gomes and possibly Rocco Baldelli, depending on how he is recovering.

Tampa Bay’s offense is in good shape, the finished 15^th in the majors in runs scored in 2007, and 12^th in OPS. Even taking into account some regression from Carlos Pena, the improved right field situation (where the Devil Rays were 28^th in OPS) should balance the scales. With Evan Longoria expected to play 3b, and Akinora Iwamura at 2b, the Rays have the potential to be above average offensively at 3 infield positions.

2008 Outlook

It comes down to pitching for the Devil Rays. The presence of Garza and Percival should improve the club. While I don’t believe they will be able to post their first winning season, they should be able to improve by 6-8 games, giving them their highest win total of all-time. They are a team to watch in 2009, and could play a spoiler role in the AL East if they can improve their record against the Red Sox, whom they went 5-13 against in ’07.

Coming Monday: The Toronto Blue Jays!

2008 Outlook-New York Yankees

2008-02-28T13:04:00.001-05:00

Continuing our look at the American League East, we move on to the Yankees. Despite a slow start in 2007, the Yankees eventually righted the ship and earned the wild-card, and were bounced in 4 games by the Cleveland Indians.

Key Acquisitions

-Joe Girardi

-LaTroy Hawkins

-Morgan Ensberg

Key Departures

-Roger Clemens

-Joe Torre

-Luis Vizcaino

-Doug Mientkiewicz

The Yankees also resigned several prominent players, including Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite, and Alex Rodriguez. They also picked up right fielder Bobby Abreu’s option.

The key transactions were the departure of manager Joe Torre and the hiring of Joe Girardi. Torre leaves a Yankee legacy behind comparable to those of Joe McCarthy and Casey Stengel. However, he had drawn criticism for a number of things, including his handling of the bullpen in recent years, his laid back approach, and his leaving A-Rod out to dry in 2006. When you win 4 World Series titles in your first five seasons with a team, and fail to win one in the seven after that, people are going to talk.

There are a few similarities to Girardi and Torre. Both are ex-catcher, they both were ex-National League managers when they were hired, and both had ties to New York(Torre played for the Mets in the 70’s, and was actually a player-manager for a short time).

Girardi guided a young, inexperienced team to 78 wins in 2006, and won the NL Manager of the Year award (whether he really deserved it over Willie Randolph and his Mets running roughshod all over the NL is a different article). He was fired after one year, in part because of clashes with ownership, and in part because of his perceived handling of a young pitching staff.

One incident that sticks out is Josh Johnson coming back to pitch after a rain delay of almost an hour and a half. It was Johnson’s last game of the season, September 12^th. Girardi has taken a lot of heat for his handling of the pitching staff, as his detractors point to the fact that Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco were unable to pitch most of 2007. Those three combined for 28 starts over 100 pitches, out of their 63 combined starts.

A bit worrisome if you’re a Yankee fan looking forward to watching Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy for years to come. The Yankees and pitching coach Dave Eiland have made it clear that they’ll treat this players with kid gloves, but you have to wonder, if push comes to shove, will Girardi just strap ‘em to the deck and ride the wave in the crunch?

Swapping out Luis Vizcaino for Latroy Hawkins is, at best, a lateral move. Vizcaino pitched much better in the second half(1.28 WHIP and 3.34 ERA). Hawkins pitched well in Colorado, but it was the first time since 04 he had posted a WHIP below 1.30. The departure of Clemens was probably for the best, as he wouldn’t have added anything to the 2008 staff except for payroll and bad publicity.

2008 Outlook

The Yankees should finish 2^nd in the AL East, and claim the Wild Card. They do have questions in the rotation (where their top two starters of Wang and Pettite trail behind other 1-2 punches in the AL) , and the bullpen, after Rivera and Chamberlain(and if Chamberlain moves to the rotation, do the Yankees have a reliable setup man) is unrealiable. The offense, which will regress after career years from Posada, and possibly A-Rod(it would be crazy to expect 54 homers and 156 RBI’s again), though will carry them, though one has to wonder for how much longer, given the age of their offense(31.3 on opening day for their likely top 10 hitters in 2008).

Continuing to look at 2008-Boston Red Sox

2008-02-27T12:27:00.000-05:00

Continuing in alphabetical order through the AL East, we have the Boston Red Sox. As World Series champions, the Sox didn’t have to do much beyond resigning their own free agents.

Significant Additions

-Sean Casey

Significant Departures

-Eric Gagne

Sean Casey will provide a backup first baseman, and left-handed bat on the bench. I don’t foresee “The Mayor” taking any time away from Gold Glover Kevin Youklis. Unless Mike Lowell, who the Sox resigned, gets hurt and Youklis moves to third, Casey should see minimal time.

The departure of Eric Gagne was to be expected, and the Sox received a supplemental pick for the trouble of using Gagne for two months. Also expected was the resigning of Lowell, who was coming off a career year. A bit more unexpected was the resigning of Curt Schilling. Unfortunately, it was revealed earlier this month that Schilling will likely miss the first half of the season, and could in fact be done, with a shoulder injury.

Even without Schilling, the Red Sox rotation is more than capable of carrying on. Josh Beckett and Dice-K provide a good 1-2 punch (and I truly believe that Matsuzaka will pitch more like his first half self, and less like his September self), and can be counted on to take the ball about 70 times in 2008.

Two talented youngsters slide into the 3-4 spots in Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Lester missed part of last year recovering my lymphoma, but came back and pitched well in his 12 games. He then topped it off by pitching 5.2 scoreless innings in the World Series, clinching the title for the Red Sox. You may have heard of Buchholz, he pitched a no hitter in his second MLB start. He was shut down and left off the post-season roster, simply to preserve his young arm. Some scouts feel that Buchholz is a better prospect than the Yankees Joba Chamberlain. Buchholz struck out 356 batters over the course of 285.2 minor league innings, and has a career minor league ERA of 2.46 and WHIP of 1.00.

The offense remains largely unchanged. Its not unreasonable to think JD Drew can rebound from a poor showing, and if he does, it should offset a likely decline from Mike Lowell. The lineup is solid, though Julio Lugo remains a question mark. If he continues to struggle, it’s possible prospect Jed Lowrie could take some time away from him. Hot shot rookie Jacoby Ellsbury(who earned the thanks of a nation when his World Series stolen base netted everyone a free taco from Taco Bell) takes over for Coco Crisp in center.

2008 Outlook: Barring injury, I see this team winning the division, and possibly earning a return trip to the World Series.

2008 Outlook-Team by team starting with the Baltimore Orioles

2008-02-26T12:08:00.001-05:00

In what I hope to be a daily feature, I'll be taking a look at each team going into 2008, where they improved themselves, what they lost, etc. We'll start in the AL East, alphabetically with the Baltimore Orioles.

Significant acquisitions:

-RHP Matt Albers

-LHP Troy Patton

-OF Luke Scott

-RHP Dennis Sarfate

-3B Michael Costanzo

-OF Adam Jones

-LHP George Sherrill

-RHP Chris Tillman

-RHP Kam Mickolio

-LHP Tony Butler

Significant departures

-SS Miguel Tejada

-LHP Eric Bedard

After years of waffling, the Orioles finally decided to trade Miguel Tejada, probably a few years too late. Still, they dealt him the day before his name was released on the Mitchell Report, so that’s a plus.

Overall, it was a decent haul. Scott has probably peaked, but he did out-produce Tejada last year, in fewer at bats. If the Orioles are smart, he’ll be shopped at the trade deadline, because I think his peak is now, and will be worth more long-term in a trade. Albers projects as a back of the rotation starter, while Patton profiles as a likely #3. Sarfate looks like a career minor leaguer, but Costanzo could help the Orioles in a year or two, as he has shown decent power and the propensity to take walks. According to Baseball America, some scouts view him as a first baseman in the making. Patton and Costanzo were numbers 3 and 6 on their Top 10 prospect list, respectively.

The real good stuff came in the Bedard deal. The Orioles decided that they wouldn’t be able to keep Eric Bedard(who is a free agent after 2009), and traded him while his name was hot. Bedard is coming off his best year as a pro, and if not for a September injury, would have likely finished higher than 5^th in the Cy Young Race(he finished with more strikeouts, and a lower WHIP and ERA than winner CC Sabathia, despite pitching 59 less innings).

This was the 4^th straight year that Bedard improved his ERA. WHIP, and strikeout totals. The hard-throwing lefty turns 29 in March, and could be poised for a big year in Seattle. The infield defense should be a great help(Bedard has a career 1.31 groundball to flyball ratio).

The Orioles got Adam Jones, who was the Mariners top prospect, and should slide into centerfield. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis should be the cornerstone of the offense for years to come. George Sherrill is a soon to be 31 year old lefty who lowered his ERA by almost 2 runs last year. While he could be useful in the AL East, if someone comes offering a decent prospect for him, the O’s should jump at the chance.

Tillman had the best curve in the Mariners system, and should give the O’s some rotation depth in the future. Tony Butler once ranked in the M’s Top 10 Prospect list, but struggled in Low A ball in 2007. Kam Mickolio is an interesting arm, and like Butler and Tillman, was drafted in 2006, so there is time to sort them out. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mickolio reaches the majors this year, after posting a solid 2.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in Double A and Triple A, while striking out more than a batter an inning.

In all, the O’s did well for themselves, and if Peter Angelos ever quits Brian Roberts, the O’s could add a few more big league capable pitchers. Still, the 2008 outlook is bleak, and 100 losses isn’t out of the question.

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2008-02-26T11:38:00.001-05:00

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Top moves of the offseason-looking back at the 2002 offseason

2008-02-21T11:09:00.000-05:00

Inspired by a comment on my look back at the top moves of the offseason, I was inspired to go back and look at some of the transaction of the 2002 offseason. This isnt a comprehensive list, by any means, but an analysis of some of the more interesting moves that offseason.

The Colorado Rockies traded Juan Pierre, Mike Hampton, and cash to the Florida Marlins for Charles Johnson, Preston Wilson, Vic Darensbourg, and Pablo Ozuna

After 3 seasons in Colorado, in which he stole 100 bases, the Rockies shipped him in order to get rid of Hampton. Pierre had his 2nd best year(his best year came in 2004) playing centerfield for the World Series winning Marlins. He and Luis Castillo formed a very fast, very pesky top of the order, and Pierre actually finished 10th in the MVP voting. After 3 seasons in Florida, he was traded to the Cubs for Sergio Mitre, Renyel Pinto, and Ricky Nolasco. Hampton was traded two days later to the Braves for Tim Spooneybarger and a minor leaguer, along with some cash.

Charles Johnson was a shell of his former All-Star self at that point, and hit .230(albeit with 20 homers) at the age of 31. He was finished after 2005. Preston Wilson had his best year in 2003, collecting his only all-star appearance by leading the league in RBI's, and hitting 36 homers. He too went downhill pretty quickly, and played just 25 games for the Cardinals in 2007, and has never cracked 30 homers or 100 RBI's since. Darensbourg and Ozuna were blips on the radar for Colorado.

The Cleveland Indians traded Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese to the Texas Rangers for Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette.

Hoo boy, did this one pan out for the Indians. The complaint here isnt that the Rangers traded Hafner(though they probably shouldnt have), its that the didnt get enough. To understand this trade, you have to understand why Texas considered trading him.

At the time, Texas had Rafael Palmerio at first, who was coming off a 43 homer season, and Mark Teixeria coming up. They clearly didn’t have enough places to play these guys, though with Palmerio a free agent after 2003, it might have behooved them to stock up on depth.

Hafner meanwhile, was coming of 4 straight 20 homer seasons in the minors, slugging over .500 in all those seasons. His lowest OBP in that period was .373, and he peaked at .450.
Myette was a 24 year old right who had struggled in his time in the majors, but had posted good ERA’s and WHIP’s in the minors.

Diaz was a 29 year old catcher who posted a .542 OPS in 102 games in the majors. He had never posted a league average OPS to that point, and his best days in the minors had come back in 1998, when he posted a slightly above league average OPS of .782, though oddly below the team OPS. The Rangers were about to lose Pudge to free agency, so they were in need of a catcher.
Drese won 10 games in his rookie season of 2002, posting an ERA over 6 in the process. Drese had posted decent ERA and WHIP numbers in the minors.

At this point, you’d have to say the Indians got the player with the most potential, while Drese and Myette almost cancelled each other out, leaving Diaz. I think, at the time, not considering the years of hindsight here, that the Indians got an edge here.
You know how the rest turns out. Hafner became a near MVP candidate, Drese and Diaz spent a combined 3+ seasons in Texas(with Diaz playing just 2003 for the Rangers). Drese pitched well in 2004, winning 14 games and having a better than average ERA. Diaz was traded before the 2004 season in a deal for Chris Young, so he at least helped there. Myette was done in the majors after 2004.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter as a free agent

Carpenter signed with the Cardinals after being released earlier in the offseason by the Blue Jays. Carpenter missed most of 2002, and underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. It could be argued that Carpenter, a former first round pick, had been an average pitcher for the Jays, with a win loss record of 49-50, with a 4.83 ERA. However, he was just 27 at the time

The Cards took a chance on Carpenter, and monitored his health. He didn’t pitch at all in 2003, and came back to win 15 games and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award. He followed that up with a 21 win Cy Young year in 2005 , and won 15 games in 2006 for the WS Champs. Carpenter barely pitched in 2007, and underwent TJ surgery. Props though to the Cards front office, for taking a chance. They didn’t have to give up anything but money, paying him just $300,000 to miss all of 2003.

The Minnesota Twins released David Ortiz.
The Boston Red Sox signed David Ortiz as a free agent.

Think the Twins want this one back. Ortiz went on to greater things with the Sox, and has finished in the top 5 in MVP voting every year with the Sox, without winning one. Ortiz has hit 208 homers as their DH, and has been incredible in the postseason for them, hitting 11 homers in 160 postseason at bats with Boston.

There were rumors of a personality clash in Minnesota, but nothing has ever been substantiated
.
The Atlanta Braves traded Kevin Millwood to the Philadelphia Phillies for Johnny Estrada.

Millwood was about to get a big raise via arbitration(he wound up 9+ million in 2003), and the Braves had committed too much money by acquiring Russ Ortiz, and the the surprise of Greg Maddux accepting arbitration. The Braves made a last minute move, and dealt the 18 game winner to division rival Philadelphia, getting catcher Johnny Estrada in the process. Javy Lopez went on to have a big 2003, and Estrada was barely seen in a Braves uniform.

Millwood posted below average ERA in his two years for the Phillies, and wound up signing with Cleveland after the 2005 season. The Phillies netted Adrian Cardenas with their compensation pick, and Cadenas has impressed in his two minor league seasons, posting a .784 OPS, and was ranked as the Phillies #2 prospect by Baseball America.

Estrada won the Silver Slugger award in 2004, hitting .314. It was his only year posting an OPS over league average, and he was traded after 2005 for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villareal.

The Chicago White Sox traded Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Liefer, and cash to the Montreal Expos for Bartolo Colon and Jorge Nunez

Colon went 15-13 for a 2nd place White Sox crew. After 2003, he signed with the Angels, and went on to win a Cy Young. The ChiSox netted Tyler Lumsden for their troubles.
El Duque never pitched for the White Sox, as he had arthroscopic surgery and missed all of 2003. He signed with the Yankees in the offseason. Biddle provided 2 seasons of what could be considered relief, and Liefer was waived during the 2003 season. In short, a whole lot of nothing.

Top moves of the offseason

2008-02-19T11:45:00.000-05:00

Now that winter has turned into spring training, its time to look back at the best moves of the offseason.

October
-Braves send Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for Jair Jurrgens and Gorkys Hernandez.

The Braves managed to gain some much needed payroll, and added two useful prospects in the process. Jurrgens should give the Braves a #4 starter this year, and some projections have him as high as a #2 starter long term. Hernandez, along with Jordan Schaeffer, will provide the Braves with someone to eventually fill the void of Andrud Jones.

The Tigers meanwhile, get a decent glove who does a good job with the bat at short, and consequently, get to move Carlos Guillen to first, whose bat is a definite improvement over Sean Casey.

November

-Angels sign Torii Hunter

An interesting move, as the Angels already had Gary Matthews. But Hunter adds much more than Matthews(Gold Glove, better bat) that its a smart move. It does leave the Angels with an excess in the OF(Juan Rivera, Matthews, Reggie Willits, plus Hunter and Vlad, and Chone Figgins when he's not playing third), but I wouldnt be shocked to see Willits or Rivera traded before the start of the season.

-Twins send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.

Twins send a player whose stuff has ace pontential and get a player who has been compared to Vlad. I think this is a pretty even up deal, as the Twins could see Morneau, Mauer and Young blossom in the middle of the lineup for years, while the Rays add a pitcher who should slot in behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields for now. The Rays rotation in 2009/2010 is shaping up to be one of the best in the majors.

December
-Tigers acquireLHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins in exchange for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin.

Not sure how I feel about Willis moving to the AL. Its hard to imagine him pitching any worse, and getting away from Florida(where the coaching staff tinkered with his delivery) should help. He should benefit greatly from an improved defense(Polanco, Granderson, and Renteria are a huge improvement over Uggla, whomever was playing CF that week for the Marlins and Ramirez).

Cabrera forms a formidable 3-4-5 for Detroit, and a trip back to the WS isnt out of the question.

Florida gets the centerfielder they have needed for years in Maybin, while Andrew Miller could eventually be the ace of that Marlins rotation. Rabelo should take over as their everyday catcher.

-Diamondbacks acquire RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham and OF Carlos Gonzalez.

A huge move for the Diamondbacks, as a 1-2 punch of Webb and Haren stacks up with anyone in the National League. The key pieces for Oakland are Gonzalez, Anderson and Carter, and Gonzalez could be in center for the A's this year. Carter is a few years away, though where he will play when that time comes(possibly DH) remains to be seen.

-Rangers acquire Josh Hamilton from the Reds for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera.

The Rangers get a bonafide centerfielder, and if he can stay healthy and problem-free, could provide a middle of the order bat for years to come.
Volquez has never really pitched well at the MLB level, but has always been on the young side. I'm not sure I like his odds in Cincinatti, though the gopher ball has never been his problem at the minor league level. There are some questions on whether a guy with Herrera's stuff will be able to make it as a big league starter.

January
-A's trade OF Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and OF Ryan Sweeney.

The White Sox make a move to improve in the Central, though it remains to be seen whether it is enough to leapfrog the Indians and Tigers. The A's continue their rebuilding effort by acquiring cheap, young arms, along with a decent OF prospect in Sweeney.

February
-Mets acquire LHP Johan Santana from the Twins for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber and RHP Kevin Mulvey.

This trade could pan out in 3-5 years for the Twins. Guerra is the wild card, a 19 year old whom scouts love and see as a potential ace. Humber should slide into the Twins rotation this year, and projects as a back end guy. Mulvey's ceiling is as a mid-rotation, and he could be up later this year. Gomez will be in the mix for the centerfield job, and his defense is a plus there. He hasnt shown much power at any level, so it remains to be seen how far he'll go. Worst case, he's a Juan Pierre with a better arm.

The Mets get the ace they've been craving, and with one of the 5 best pitchers in all of baseball on their side, they move to the top of the NL East class, though it wont be an easy job to win it. Not much to say about it that hasnt already been said.

And there you have it. I'm hoping to put together a division by division look, starting next week.

If I had a HOF vote

2008-01-03T14:06:00.000-05:00

With the Hall of Fame results right around the corner, I thought it was time to reveal what my vote would be, if I were to ever have one.

1)Tim Raines-I covered him in a previous post, but to sum up: If not for the prescence of a certain first ballot Hall of Famer, Raines would be considered the greatest leadoff man of his generation. People like to point out that he made the All-Star team his first 7 full years, and then never again as a bad point. Lou Brock only made 6, and they werent in a consecutive run like Raines was.

2)Dale Murphy-Murphy won back to back MVP in 1982 and 1983. At the time, the NL included stars such as Mike Schmidt, Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Jack Clark and Pedro Guerrero. Murphy finished with 398 career homers, which is what critics use to hold him back. Of course, Murphy only got cups of coffee's at age of 20 and 21. Because of the erratic nature of his arm, he was moved from catcher to first, and eventually settled in centerfield, where he won 5 Gold Gloves. How many catchers get converted into centerfielders, and then win multiple Gold Gloves?

3)Goose Gossage-The fact that Gossage isnt in yet is a borderline crime. He was the closer of his day, in a day where closers were asked to pitch in a wider variety of situations. Gossage finished with 310 saves, good for 17th all time. If he pitched today, he'd probably have close to twice that, as evidenced by his finished 681 games, good for 6th all time. For comparison, Trevor Hoffman has 524 saves, and has finished 732 games. Hoffman averages 1.07 innings an appearance, Gossage 1.81. Throw in his 8 saves and 2.87 ERA in 19 postseason games, and he should have been in a while ago.

4)Jim Rice-Rice is a player I just recently came around on. 8 100+ RBI seasons, 382 homers and 8 All-star games. Throw his MVP award(for his .315/.370/.600 46 homers, 139 RBI 1978 season), and his good arm(137 career assists), and I think he's finally due. Working against him of course is his rep, but I think that after everything that has happened this winter, he looks alot better.

New players on the HOF Ballot

2007-12-03T14:03:00.000-05:00

Come mid-January, we should know who was lucky enough to be enshrined in Cooperstown. As with every year, there a bunch of new candidates, and I'll take some time to break them down for you.

Brady Anderson-If ever a player's rep was built on one year, it was Brady. His 50 homers in 1996 were more than his previous 3 seasons combined. In fact, he never had a season before or after in which he hit half that many. He's become almost a poster boy for the steroid one-year wonder club. If you ignore the speculation, he actually had a good career, 210 homers, 315 steals, and a lifetime OBP of .362, and was a 3 time All Star. Still, no chance he gets in, more likely he falls off the voting after 1 year.

Rod Beck-One of the more fun players of his era, Beck passed away this summer at the age of 38. Beck had some incredible seasons, primarily with the Giants. Still, closers have a hard enough time getting in, and his 286 saves and 3.30 ERA just arent good enough. There are a number of more worthy relievers ahead of him.

Shawon Dunston-The shortstop whose arm was so good, it was considered to rival Dwight Goodens. A former #1 pick, Dunston never really lived up to the hype, never hitting more than 17 homers or stealing more than 32 bases in a season. His arm was a cannon though, and he was fun to watch. But a career OBP under .300 is not going to get you into the Hall of Fame.

Chuck Finley-Finley in his prime was one of the tougher pitchers in the majors. A 5-time All-Star, Finley won 200 games and finished with a decent 3.85 ERA. Still, the only real categories he ever led the league in where innings(once), games started(once) and complete games(also once).

Travis Fryman-Another solid player, Fryman managed 5 All-Stars nominatiosn, a Silver Slugger Award, and a Gold Glove. Still, he never hit 30 homers, or led the league in any major offensive category. And he spent most of his career with the Tigers when they were bad.

David Justice-Also Known As Mr. Halle Barry, Justice had an excellent career derailed by injuries. You have to wonder what would have happened if he had managed some healthy seasons, as he surpassed 500 AB's just 3 times(and only once before hitting 30 oddly). 305 homers and a career slugging of .500 are nothing to sneeze at, and neither are the Rookie of the Year award and ALCS MVP he won. But they are not enough to get him into the Hall of Fame.

Chuck Knoblauch-Before coming to the Yankees at the age of 28, Knoblauch was someone I would have thought was on his way to a HOF career. By the age of 28, he was a 4-time All-Star, a Rookie of the Year, a Gold Glover(the season before he was traded to the Yankees ironically), and won two Silver Slugger Awards, no easy feat considering who he had as competition. At the end of 1997, he had 1,197 hits, and had he gotten to play 15 seasons at that pace, he would have had 2,565 hits. Heck, by that point he had almost 300 steals as well. Still, its the Hall of Fame, not Hall of What-if's, and Knoblauch was more infamous than famous. Too bad, as he was terrific to watch, sort of a poor mans Craig Biggio.

Robb Nen-We're getting into a period where we are starting to see more and more closers pop up. Another fine closer, Nen's career was cut short by arm troubles. He ended his career on a fine note, saving 7 games in the Giants 2002 postseason, posting an ERA of 1.00 at that time. But again, there is a line of relievers more accomplished than Nen.

Tim Raines-One of the premier leadoff hitters of the 80's right behind Rickey Henderson. Raines finished his career as a 7 time All-Star, and won the 1987 All-Star game MVP(he went 3 for 3 with a triple, 2 RBI's and a stolen base. Oh yeah, and he didnt start the game). Oh, and as a leaadoff hitter, he even managed a Silver Slugger. He finished his career 5th in steals, 68th in hits, 46th in runs, 33rd in walks, and 100th in total bases. Bonus points go to Raines because he probably lost an MVP award in 1987 to owners collusion(and it possibly cost the Expos the pennant, as Raines missed the first 21 games of the season, and the Expos went 8-13 during that time. The Expos finished 4 games back).

Jose Rijo-When he was healthy, he was fun to watch. Unfortunately, it wasnt often enough, and he was pretty much done by 30, finishing with 116 wins, and a World Series MVP to show for his career. Considering how many players dont even get to the WS, thats pretty good. He was also part of the Yankees trade for Rickey Henderson, and later, the A's trade for Dave Parker(who was pretty good in his own right).

Todd Stottlemyre-Another player whose career was cut short. Even when healthy though, Stottlemyre was good sometimes, average others.

In another post, I'll cover the players still on the ballot who are deserving of consideration, not necessarily enshrinement.

Hank Steinbrenner gives Twins deadline, no one believes him

2007-12-03T10:43:00.000-05:00

Gotta love the wild and wacky Steinbrenners. Hank proudly continues on in the tradition of George. As Marlon Brando said "The son becomes the father becomes the son." Or something like that.

Anyway, Hank Steinbrenner gave the Twins a deadline of tonight regarding their offer, saying the 3rd prospect isnt the deal breaker. You gotta love how modest he is, saying in todays Newsday "I think our offer is the best offer," Steinbrenner said. "We have the best young pitchers in the game, even better than Boston."

First off, the deadline is ridiculous. No one believes him, at least not after the whole A-Rod thing. Second off, because of the above, he's costing himself leverage by speaking out like this. Third, if the Sox offer is indeed Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and presumably right handed pitcher Justin Masterson, that is the better deal in my view. Hitters generally are the safer bet to reach their peak than pitchers, as so many things can go wrong. While Hughes could turn out to be every bit as good as what they say, I'd take Lowrie of Melky Cabrera every time. The Sox offer could turn out an All-Star centerfielder and an All-Star shortstop. Plus Masterson.

Still, it's nice to see Hank continue the fine Yankee tradition of loud owners though. It should be another fun 30 years in the Bronx.

Johan and the trade market.

2007-11-30T14:47:00.000-05:00

Boy is this fun. You got two intense rivals(Yankees and Red Sox)in on the best pitcher in baseball, plus the Angels(supposedly) and a bunch of other teams.

Right now, there is alot of bluster about what the Twins are demanding. And believe me, they have every right to demand for a guy who is a Cy Young contender. Names like Reyes, Cano, Ellsbury, Hughes are all being tossed around like ping pong balls in a blender.

The Yankees have refused to part with Joba Chamberlain but have put Hughes out there(seems there has been a shift in the pecking order, considering that Hughes was the Yankees #1 prospect according to Baseball America this past winter). Rumor has it that they offered Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy for him. I'm not as high on Cabrera as others are(I think he's a Coco Crisp clone), and Kennedy looks like a #3 starter at best. Hughes is the gem of the deal of course, and could be a stud. Heck, if only Hughes turns out the way people think, the Twins break even likely.

The Sox have made Ellsbury their no-no guy, but have offered up Jed Lowrie(top shortstop prospect) Jon Lester, and Coco Crisp, at least. Rumor was there was a 4th player(possibly Masterson). Intersting deal, but I think I'd prefer Hughes to anyone in this offer, but its deeper in players who will help the Twins more.

I think eventually, the Sox will cave and swap Crisp for Ellsbury, and the Twins will jump all over it. If that happens, its a solid deal for the Twins, as they get two players they can plug in right now, and Lowrie isnt that far away either. And some scouts think that Lester will be better than Kennedy anyway. They could eventually wind up with 2 All-Stars from this, maybe more.

Supposedly, the Mets are pushing hard for Eric Bedard, who it doesnt look like the O's can sign to a long term deal. Apparently, their offer of Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber and Aaron Heilman was turned down. I think if the Mets push, they could work something out. But they need to step up their package, and include someone like Kevin Mulvey instead of Humber, and maybe add a 4th player, someone like Mike Carp? I think the O's would be happy with this, as they get a dependable reliever(perhaps someone who can jump into the #5 spot), a starting centerfielder and a projected #3/4 starter.

Obviously the Mets get an ace in return, a player who has lowered his ERA while increasing his strikeout totals for 4 straight seasons. If need be, the Mets should consider taking a contract dump(an Aubrey Huff or a Baez) if it helps it get done. To me, this is a better alternative to Dan Haren, whom I like. I think Haren is a #2/3 starter, while Bedard is an ace who would flourish at Shea.

Transactions for the week of 11/21-11/30

2007-11-30T14:03:00.000-05:00

Technically, 9 days is not a week, but whatever. Works has kept me too busy to write one of these bad boys, but there has been alot to happen lately, that it seems fitting to write about it.

Kenny Rogers resigns with Tigers

A good move, at a reasonable price. Rogers should provide a solid prescence in the middle of the rotation, and I think the Tigers needed him.

Mets trade Guillermo Mota to the Brewers for Johnny Estrada

I've heard of win-win but lose-lose. This was a classic "I'll trade my headache for yours" kind of deal, except that because of the next deal, the Mets win.

Mets trade Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider

I know most Mets fans hate this one, but I think it comes out ok for them. Milledge has been overrated for years, and most of his 2007 line came from killing lefties, while being awful against righties. While I think he may turn into a 20 HR/15 steal kind of guy, I'm far from convinced that he's gonna be a star. Especially if he doesnt improve against righties. I get a Alex Ochoa/Jay Payton vibe here.

Church, meanwhile should help the Mets more in 2008 than Milledge would. He posted a solid OPS+(On base plus Slugging normalized to the leauge) of 115, meaning he was 15% better than the average hitter. He's hitting his peak years(just turned 29) and he is under their control for a few more years. Schneider might be the best defensive catcher the Mets have had since Gary Carter, which is pretty sad when you think about how long ago that was. It will be nice to see a runner thrown out trying to steal.

This trade makes Estrada irrelevant, and I suspect, a top non-tender candidate.

Twins trade Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon to the D-Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie

I like the D-Rays side of this equation. Harris is really a utility guy pretending to be an everday shortstop who will be out of a job once Reid Brignac is called up. Garza is projected to have front of the rotation stuff, and gives the D-Rays a very solid rotation, one that will get even better when David Price makes his debut. Rincon helps improve a bullpen that needed help.

Thats not to say the Twins got ripped off. Some projections of Young have him as the next Vlad Guerrero. He certainly fits the profile, and despite the hype, had a halfway decent rookie year(including 93 RBI's). Still, you'd like to see the average and OBP climb up some more. I think long term this will be a wash, but right now, I think the D-Rays come out a little ahead.

D-Rays sign Troy Percival

I think between the Twins trade and this signing, the D-Rays have improved their pen tremendously, and have candidates should Al Reyes falter in his 2nd year as closer. I'm guessing that Percival will be a every other day setup man, working in tandem with Rincon.

Reds sign Francisco Cordero

Alot of money for a guy thats not going to help the Reds that much in the standings. They have a bigger need for a starter to slot in behind Harang/Arroyo because its a bunch of unknowns after that. Blowing that much money on a closer smacks of a PR move.

Brewers sign Jason Kendall, Dave Riske

I like the Kendall signing. A solid .350 OBP behind the plate, even with no power, is nothing to sneeze at. At least they wont be giving away outs from the catcher position like they were last year with Estrada.

Riske I am less fond of. Losing Cordero really hurts, so what do they do? They sign an unneeded middle reliever. Riske had a good year with the Royals, but I suspect he's not going to post an ERA that low(2.45) again. I'm guess ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.29, 1.30. Not bad, but not really needed either.

There were a few other transactions(Posada signs officially, Kerry Wood resigns with Cubs) that have either been covered, or just dont need alot said about them. Til next time!

NL MVP

2007-11-20T10:50:00.000-05:00

The National League MVP race is an interesting one. Going into September, the Mets David Wright was one of the leading contenders, and likely had an inside track on it, over Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder and Jimmy Rollins, because of his teams position in the standings.

Then September happened, and everything turned topsy-turvy. The Mets collapsed, the Phillies surged and took advantage, and the Rockies just about turned in the 1927 Yankees in the last 2 weeks of the season, leaving the Mets out in the rain, looking at the warm dinner being served to the other two.

Even though the collaps was in no way Wright's fault, his MVP candidacy will suffer for it, as he has been effectively knocked out. With him out of the way, lets look at the other candidates.

Fielder, 1B, Brewers-Knocked the cover off the ball, hitting 50 homers and knocking in 119. He earned his first All-Star Game apperance, and his first Silver Slugger. He led the league in homers, and was top 5 in RBI's, extra base hits, slugging, OPS, runs and intentional walks. Working against him is the Brewers finish, after leading the Central for the first 3 months, they finished 2nd to the Cubs. Order of finish: 3rd

Rollins, SS, Phillies-Before the season, Rollins claimed that the Phillies on paper were the team to beat in the NL East, and eventually, they proved him right. Rollins joined Curtis Granderson in the 20-20-20 club, hitting 38 doubles, 20 triples, and 30 homers, and added 41 steals. He also won his first Gold Glove, making 11 errors this year. He led the league in runs, triples, and most interestingly, outs made. He wasnt even the best player on his team(that honor belongs to either Chase Utley or Ryan Howard, depending on how you feel), but his words prior to the season garnered him alot of attention, which helps his MVP cause. Order of finish: 2nd

Holliday, LF, Rockies-For the 4th straight year, Holliday improved his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage, even more remarkable considering that those numbers werent shabby to start with. In his 4th year, he established himself not just as a star, but as one of the best players in the game. The Rockies September push put him in the national conciousness, and he led the league in two very important categories(in the eyes of the media): batting average and RBI's. He also led the league in total bases and extra base hits, besting fielder despite yielding 14 homers to him. Leading the league in doubles will do that. More importantly though, when the Rockies needed him most, he produced. He hit .365 with 12 homers in September/October. Even better, in the one game playoff with the Padres, Holliday tied the game up with the Rockies trailing in the bottom of the 13th with a triple, and scored the winning run on a sac fly. Order of finish:1st

My guess is the the Mets swoon pushes Wright to 4th, where no one will even remember. Holliday wins a much deserved MVP award. It's amazing the quality of young stars the NL is pumping out, as Holliday turns 28 in January, while Rollins turns 29 next week, and Wright and Fielder are under 25.

Orlando Cabrera traded for Jon Garland

2007-11-19T12:39:00.001-05:00

The Los Angeles Angels traded Gold Glove winner Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago Whitesox for starting pitcher Jon Garland. An interesting move, I guess this paves the way for Brandon Wood to finally become a regular. The Angels could do worse for a 4th starter, but its odd that they had to kick in cash.

I suppose this makes Joe Saunders the 5th starter for the Angels, and could signal the end of Ervin Santana's inconsistent days for them. Santana is worth taking a look at for some teams, as he turns 25 in January, and did manage to win 16 games, while posting a 4.26 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2006. Maybe as part of a Miguel Cabrera package?

For the White Sox, this is an odd move. Garland was their #3 starter, after Mark Buerhle and Javier Vazquez. Considering the way Jose Contreras pitched last year, its a big risk on their part. Cabrera should be better than Juan Uribe, considering how poor Uribe played last year. The move adds a decent on base guy to the top of their lineup who can steal a base, and play excellent defense. I'm guessing that Uribe is moved to 2B, or traded, though I dont see the market for a player who failed to slug over .400 or post an OBP over .300 being all that great, even if he is only making 4.5 million.

AL MVP

2007-11-19T12:00:00.000-05:00

The question isnt who will win the AL MVP, but more like, will it be unanimous? My guess is that yes, A-Rod will win his 3rd MVP and no one will vote against him. How could anyone? He led the league in 2 of the 3 Triple Crown categories, and hit .314 to boot(good for 13th). He also led the AL in slugging, was 4th in OBP, and added 24 steals(against 4 caught stealings), good for 14th.

I guess the real question is, who finishes second? I'm guessing David Ortiz, who finished .001 behind Rodriguez in OPS.

This week in Free agency

2007-11-16T10:34:00.000-05:00

I'm hoping/expecting this to be a weekly post, looking at the week in hot stove activity. So for the week of 11/10-11/16 we have:
-Todd Jones re-signing with the Tigers
-Jorge Posada re-signing with the Yankees
-The Mets signing Yorvit Torrealba
-The Yankees re-signing A-Rod
-The Cubs trading Craig Monroe

Because of another freak injury to Joel Zumaya, the Tigers had their hand forced into resigning Todd Jones. The 1 year, $7 million deal wasnt terrible, and probably very reasonable by current standards. There was some thought that they should have just used Fernando Rodney instead of Jones, but that probably wouldnt have been a wise move. For one, you dont know how Rodney would have reacted to being the closer. For another, the bump up to the other relievers(like moving Zach Miner into a more key spot)would have weakened the pen considerably. In the end, it was the easiest move to make. One piece of advice for the Tigers: When Zumaya is not pitching, please place him in bubble wrap, for your benefit, and the benefit of my strat team.

I dont think there was any doubt that the Yankees would resign Posada. The question was what would it cost them. Posada has an amazing year, winning the Silver Slugger and being selected to his 5th All-Star team. Even more amazing considering that he turned 36 in August. The Yankees gave him 4 years, which means by the time he's done, he'll be a 40 year old catcher. Or more likely, a 40 year old DH/first baseman. The Yankees reluctance to extend him in spring training probably cost them money and years, and its the latter they will regret. You have to wonder how much more his body can take behind the plate, and it would be a shock to see him playing more first base in 2009. The one thing working in his favor is the fact that the Yankees held him back when he did reach the majors. He didnt catch more than 120 game at the big league level until he was 28. That could work in his, and consequently, the Yankees favor. Still, you see what Mike Piazza is like now, I wouldnt be surprised to see Posada as a shell of his former self in 2 seasons.

The Mets signing Yorvit Torrealba is a head scratcher. On the one hand, he gets lot of credit for his passion, his handling of the pitching staff, and being a good defensive catcher. On the other hand, his bat would make Charlie O'Brien blush. Paired with Ramon Castro, I think he'll be ok, but why give him so much money(just under 15 million) for 3 years? I woudlnt be surprised to see Castro wind up with the bulk of playing time when it becomes clear that Torrealba doesnt do much with the bat. If the Mets were so concerned with defense and handling a pitching staff, why not sign Jose Molina, who likely would have come cheaper and for less years. I fear that the Mets set the market now, and whereas someone like Michael Barrett would have gotten close to 5 million a year, he's going to be able to get more now.

The Twins acquiring Craig Monroe is the kind of move that you think, well Ok, but why? to. He'll be 31 on opening day, and is coming off a season in which he failed to slug .400. He doesnt have much plate discipline(career OBP of .303), his main attribute is that he has pop. Prior to 2007, he had averaged 22 homers a year for the previous 4 seasons. If he can get back to that level, the Twins have a cheap LF/DH option on their hands, but its not a move that really pushes them forward.

And finally, A-Rod. I wrote about him yesterday, so I'll keep it brief. It was a move that the Yankees really needed, no matter what anyone tells you. A lineup with a 3-4-5 of Abreu-Matsui-Posada is very different from a lineup with Abreu-A-Rod-Matsui. The bat of A-Rod makes the hitters around him better. From a financial standpoint, having a Yankee break the Home Run Record is a liscence to print money.

Monday is the Alex, excuse AL MVP award, so we'll cover that then. If you're keeping score at home, I got the AL and NL rookies of the year, NL Cy Young and AL manager of the year, and missed on the AL Cy Young and NL Manager of the year. Four out of Six, not too bad.

The whole A-Rod situation

2007-11-15T11:43:00.000-05:00

Well, who saw this coming? Part of me is convinced that this is some sort of negotiating ploy by Boras, because who would put himself through the humiliation of this. A sampling of headlines this morning revealed that A-Rod is crawling back(complete with picture of him on his hands and knees of course). Lovely.

Anyway, if A-Rod is back with the Yankees, I think they are a better team than I initially felt. Without A-Rod, they lacked that fear of god middle of the order hitter. The Yankees do have some question marks, dont get me wrong(first base, will Melky hit like a major leaguer, will the young pitchers hold up well over a full season), but they are no worse off than last year. I'm still predicting 2009 as the year it starts to fall apart(Posada catching, Damon trying to play centerfield, no Abreu, a declining Matsui, etc), but thats over a year away, so Yankee fans, enjoy the ride while it lasts.

NL Cy Young

2007-11-15T10:11:00.000-05:00

This one is so easy to forecast that I'll eat my sock if he doesnt win. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres, come on down.

Seriously, how can you vote against a guy that won the leagues pitching Triple Crown(Wins, ERA and strikeouts for those who werent sure what that was). And for good measure, he led the league in WHIP. Thats 4 major pitching categories he led the league in. He was also 4th in the league in innings. His only competition likely will come from last years Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, who was second in wins and ERA, and fourth in strikeouts, and seventh in WHIP. But the gap between the two is pretty wide. This one is as easy as the AL MVP, which ironically, is the next award to be revealed, on November 19th.

Managers of the Year

2007-11-14T11:49:00.001-05:00

Missed on yesterday award(Cy Young), so lets take a shot at the AL and NL Managers of the year.

In the AL, I think Eric Wedge deserves it. An 18 game improvement, division title and they fell just 1 game shy of the WS. Considering the competition in the Central(Twins and Tigers specifically), winning the division was no easy feat.

In the NL, Clint Hurdle wins it going away. The Rockies finish(winning 14 of their last 15 regular season games), their 14 game improvement, and unlikely playoff march clinched it for him. Factor in that he's by all reports an affable guy that the media seems to like, and I think this one is in the bag.

Next award is tomorrow, the NL Cy Young, so look for a new post.

AL Cy Young

2007-11-13T10:56:00.000-05:00

Today's the day the American League Cy Young winner is announced. It's a two horse race, with CC Sabathia battling Josh Beckett at the finish line, with Fausto Carmona and John Lackey battling for show.

Sabathia finished 2nd to Beckett in wins, 3rd in winning percentage, 5th in strikeouts, WHIP and ERA, while leading the AL in innings. Beckett led the AL in wins, was 6th in ERA and WHIP, 7th in strikeouts and 2nd in winning percentage. Sabathia got alot of credit for being a horse, and besides leading the AL in innings, was 2nd in complete games(behind Roy Halladay).

This one is easier than I first thought. I think Beckett wins because of the prescence of Carmona. Carmona will likely take some votes from Sabathia. Given Beckett's rebound from a poor 2006, it just makes it more likely he will be rewarded. Given how extraordinary Beckett was in the post-season(4 ER in 4 starts), it's likely the right call.

Rookie of the Year awards

2007-11-12T12:19:00.000-05:00

Everyone know what time it is? It's time for awards! Yay!!!!!!!!!

I'll give my picks for each award, generally on the morning they are going to be announced. Today, the rookie of the year awards are announced for each league, generally around 2 PM.

In the American League, the top contenders are Dustin Pedroia, Brian Bannister, and Dice-K. Matsuzaka's poor finish probably eliminated him from contention. Still, 15 wins and 200 strikeouts definetly isnt a bad year. He just didnt set the world on fire like everyone thought he would.

Bannister was acquired from the Mets in the offseason in a move that turned out to be better than expected. Bannister finished 12-9, with a decent WHIP(1.21) and ERA(3.87), though he failed to make 30 starts. He was terrific in the summer months, going 11-4 from June through August, with a 2.88 ERA. He's not a strikeout pitcher, and he was helped greatly by limiting the homer(1 homer allowed for every 11 innings pitched).

And then there is little Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia slumped terribly early on, hitting .182 in April. But he came alive in May, and never looked back. He finished the year hitting .317, good for 10th in the AL, and actually walked more than he struck out, a rare feat these days. Though not a power hitter, Pedroia managed 39 doubles, and was superb in the field, committing just 6 errors in 137 games at second base.

In the end, I think it's going to be Pedroia. Bannisters poor finish(ERA over 7 in September), combined with Pedroia's visibility should give it to him. He's a throwback kind of player, the kind people like to root for.

In the National League, there is no race. Early on, in late April and early May, it looked like all Hunter Pence. Then the Brewers wisely called up Ryan Braun, and he effectively ended that race. Surprisingly, Braun didnt slow down all that much, though he had nowhere to go but down after that first half(1.054 OPS in the first half, versus .976 in the second half). Despite appearing in only 113 games, he finished 5th in the NL in homers, and would have led the senior circuit in slugging had he qualified. He even managed to steal 15 bases. While there has been some Trot Tulowitzki support, I cant imagine that Braun wont win it. I dont think it will be a shutout, it will be pretty close to one.

Gold Glove selections

2007-11-09T11:38:00.000-05:00

American League:
1B - Kevin Youkilis, Boston
2B - Placido Polanco, Detroit
SS - Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles
3B - Adrian Beltre, Seattle
OF - Torii Hunter, Minnesota
OF - Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle
OF - Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
C - Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit
P - Johan Santana, Minnesota

National League:
1B - Derrek Lee, Chicago
2B - Orlando Hudson, Arizona
SS - Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia
3B - David Wright, New York
OF - Carlos Beltran, New York
OF - Andruw Jones, Atlanta
OF - Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia and Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta
C - Russell Martin, Los Angeles
P - Greg Maddux, San Diego

Some interesting selections. It was surprising to see Derek Jeter lose out on the GG, after winning it 3 years running. I've been advocating O-Cab over Jeter for while now, so it was a pleasant surprise. Cabrera has terrific range, and excellent hands.

David Wright was a big surprise as well, and I'm not certain he deserved it. By sabermetric standards he probably didnt. But with Rolen sidelines, and Zimmerman a little shakier than he was last year, there werent a whole lot of great candidates. Pedro Feliz was mentioned, as he was credited with improving his defense. He was first in the NL in fielding percentage, 3rd in assists and total chances, behind Zimmerman and Wright. However, he played in about 200 less innings than those two.

Martin and Francoeur won what I assume will be the first of many Gold Gloves in the National League, and it was good to see Sizemore win one, as watching him play he is one of the most exciting centerfielders out there.

The one selection I really had a problem with is Adrian Beltre's. Among qualified AL third baseman, Beltre was dead last in fielding percentage, and tied for the most errors. He was 2nd best in total chances. He fared well sabermetrically, placing 2nd in Range Factor, and 4th in Zone Rating. He wasnt bad, by any means. However, he wasnt the best either. I think the award should have gone to either Mike Lowell or Alex Rodriguez. Both were terrific defensively, and were the only AL 3B to turn at least 30 double plays. A-Rod ranked 4th in fielding percentage and 5th in total chances. Lowell was 7th in fielding percentage and 3rd in total chances. Still, Beltre isnt as bad as say, Rafael Palmerio.

Braves/Tigers trade

2007-11-01T14:28:00.000-04:00

A very interesting trade went down earlier this week between the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves. The Braves sent shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Tigers in exchange for Jair Jurgens and Gorkys Hernandez. Jurgens is a 21 year old righty who made 7 starts for the Tigers this year, despite having never pitched in Triple A. That makes his 3-1 record, along with a 4.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP more impressive. Hernandez is a 20 year old centerfielder who just completed his first season of A-ball, hitting .293 with 54 steals. He's likely 3 years away from being a major league contributor.

Renteria is a solid shortstop. According to reports, the Tigers will be paying him a bit over 6 million, not a bad price for a guy who just his .332, and whose career OPS is 25% above the league average. The transaction cements the transition of Carlos Guillen to first base, where he is likely to outproduce the mayor, Sean Casey, in the first half.

My feeling in this trade is that the Tigers got a slight edge, at least for now. Jurgens should be able to pitch for the Braves, at the back of their rotation, and at least be league average. But Renteria basically improves the Tigers in two positions, with the Guillen move. Plus, I'd argue that Renteria is a steadier fielder than Guillen, who has made 52 errors the last two years at short, in 277 games.

The Braves meanwhile, plug the shortstop hole with the young Yunel Escobar, who hit .326 in 94 games in the majors this year. I think he overachieved just a tad, as his batting average on balls in play was an incredible .364. I think he settles into a .285-.300 groove, more in line with his minor league numbers. I think, if the Braves are planning on contending, turning over a key position to a player who has less than a years experience in the big leagues could prove to be a mistake.

Hernandez is the key to the deal. As of yet, he hasnt shown the power projected of him. The Tigers were dealing from a position of strength, with Curtis Granderson, and Cameron Maybin having to rank in front of him, plus Brent Clevlen is hanging around, hoping to rebound from a poor 2007. Jurgens and Hernandez ranked as the Tigers #4 and #7 prospects heading into 2007,according to Baseball America. For the short term, I like the Tigers. The long term is too up in the air, and could turn the Braves way, which is why I like the Tigers side just a tad more.

Eliminating Curt Schilling's targets

2007-10-31T14:00:00.001-04:00

Curt Schilling released a list of teams he'd be willing to sign with Wednesday. 12 teams that set the internet ablaze; ok, maybe more like a campfire. But a really big campfire. Of course, not all teams were waiting at home by the phone, hoping Schilling would tell them that he might ask them to the prom. Some have dates, while others just aren't that pretty. But how many of the 12 named need him to pin his flower on them?

Here is the list in question:
Indians
Tigers
Angels
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers

I think a few can be eliminated fairly easy. The Angels already have a pretty good rotation with John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jared Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Dustin Mosley, along with a few prospects on their way up. No need to spend the money there when they have other areas of concner(cough, A-Rod, cough).

The Braves are going to have a tough time affording Schilling with raises due to Hudson and Smoltz, plus a number of arbitration cases, plus a full season of Teixiera. The Dodgers have a pretty good rotation going in Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Esteban Loaiza, and Clayton Kershaw coming up. I think they are more likely to make a play for Santana.

The Padres need another top of the line starting pitcher like the Hamburgalar needs another cheeseburger.

The Diamonbacks are in a unique financial position, and may not be able to afford Schilling. Plus, really, do we need Grumpiest Old Men starring Randy Johnson and Schilling? I think not.

The Cubs spent a ton of money this past offseason, and they just spent the money to extend Carlos Zambrano. With Big Z, Rich Hill, Lilly, Sean Marshall, and Jason Marquis clogging the back end with his 7 million, the need and ability to add Schilling is questionable. Especially with ownership in flux.

The Brewers should have some money to burn, but they have a big need in centerfield, where Hall isnt cutting it, and closer, where resigning Cordero becomes a must, to make a serious play for him. They're better off waiting for Capuano to rebound to his 205/2006 self than spending 13 million.

The Cardinals have alot of money commited in their core. We're talking close to 80 million, and that doesnt factor in the need for a new shortstop. While they have an opening atop their rotation, with a new GM in town, I cant see where they'll be serious players.

So that leaves Indians, Tigers, Mets, and the Phillies. Realistically, the Indians probably dont need to spend the money, with Sabathia and Carmona at the top. Byrd and Westbrook are serviceable, and they have a few young options to fill out the back end. If there is a pitcher they need, its a big time closer, as the idea of a closer with a 5 + ERA has to leave fans with the willies.

The Tigers rotation really fell apart in the 2nd half, especially Jeremy Bonderman, who was superb in the first half. You wonder if a veteran leader would have kept that from happening. The Mets September collapse was of epic proportions. The malaise of the players in particular was galling. With Tom Glavine all but gone, they have the money and the spot in the rotation for him. But do they really need another ancient starting pitcher?

The Phillies have the money to burn, and the rotation spot to give. They became media darlings in the 2nd half, as they climbed their way back into the division race, and took it from the Mets. Still that ballpark would not be friendly to a pitcher with Schilling's flyball tendencies.

Its hard to say where exactly he will end up, but my money is on one of those 3 teams.

A-Rod, and the offseason

2007-10-31T13:22:00.000-04:00

Clearly, the biggest story this offseason is where Alex Rodriguez goes. A number of teams are considered contenders for his services. The Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, and Mets have to be considered the leaders in the sweepstakes, while darkhorses like the Red Sox and Yankees(never count them out, no matter what they say) remain in the background.

My hunch is that he ends up in Anaheim, despite Arte Moreno's proclamations. For one thing, they met with Scott Boras this week. If you're not willing to pay Rodriguez what he asking for, why bother having a meeting with his agent? Second, the Angels have alot of payroll coming off the books in 2008 and 2009. In 2008 the contract of Bartolo Colon($14 million in 2007), and the financial obligations to Shea Hillenbrand($6.5 million), and Hector Carrasco ($2.75 million) come off the books, freeing up $23.25 million. Assuming A-Rod receives something between 25 and 33 million, thats an extra 2-10 million. In 2009, Garret Anderson and his $12 million freed up(they have a $15 million option with a $3 million buyout, I cant imagine they would exercise it). Plus, Orlando Cabrera's $8 million salary is freed up, and with the Angels farm system being as strong as it is, they have plenty of internal candidates(Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar) to replace him.

The benefits to having A-Rod are plenty. Vlad would have protection in the lineup finally, and given the way the lineup forces the issue, that can only help. The merchandise(jersies and what not) would sell itself, and although there wouldnt be a boost in home ticket sales(where the Angels finished 3rd in the majors), having A-Rod would boost their road game attendance(where they finished 17th in the majors in average road attendance).

So dont be shocked if the Angels are right in the middle of the A-Rod negotiations.